IdleGuy.com analyzed the upcoming big changes in NCAA Division-1 and tried to come up with a respectable Top 25. Of course, the AP and Coaches' Polls will have the official say-so, but here's a best guess at what should be the preseason Top 25.
Yes, we know, Alabama not in the top 10? Well, Nick Saban is not head coach anymore. He's now an advisor, so the years of the Crimson Tide cresting over college football may be ebbing just a bit. Three Big Ten teams in the top five? Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State are for real, or, at least they look like real contenders. We shall see.
Michigan not on the list? Didn't they just win the national championship? Yes, and they also lost their head coach and 10 of 11 offensive starters and return only four defensive starters. Washington, which lost to the Wolverines in the championship, is in even worse shape, with no returning starters on offense and only three on defense. Plus, they move to the Big Ten. Tough.
Notre Dame was a hard call. With Sam Hartman headed to the NFL, the Fighting Irish will be breaking in a new QB, but, after their opener at Texas A&M, the schedule isn't very challenging. They could win 10 games or finish 7-5, that's how jumbled the college forecast is this season.
This is by no means a comprehensive outlook to the 2024 college football season. At least this year, there will be an expanded playoff format with 12 teams as opposed to the final four that have been selected the past 10 years.
For all the teams - including all of the PAC-12 except Washington State and Oregon State - jumping into new conferences, good luck. There's much to be said for schools that stayed put.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten
Since 2000, only two teams ranked #1 in the preseason AP Poll won the national championship: USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017. However, teams ranked in the top 5 preseason have won the college football title all but one time since 2015, the start of the College Football Playoff (CFP) era.
Georgia should be just fine with 16 starters returning, including QB Carson Beck, but they lost stud TE Brock Bowers to the NFL. The Bulldogs open against Clemson August 31, in a huge contest. Doubtful they can go undefeated through the SEC schedule again.
Despite winning the national championship, Michigan lost head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL (Chargers) and most of their starters. The fall from grace could be brutal in the Big House.
Florida, Ohio State, Texas, West Virginia, and Ole Miss all have 15 returning starters. Since these teams were all ranked at some point in 2023, they all should have solid seasons, but the Buckeyes, Longhorns, and Rebels appear outstanding. Texas joins the SEC and is expected, by many, to do the near-impossible, win the conference in its first year. Good luck with that.
Oklahoma State returns 10 starters from 2023 on offense and and 10 on defense following a 10-4 record (7-2 in the Big 12) and the nation's leading rusher, Ollie Gordon.
Virginia Tech, after a 7-6 season, wins in five of their final seven games, including a 41-20 blowout of Tulane in the Military Bowl, returns all 11 offensive starters and nine on defense. The start of the Hokies' season should be instructive. They play at Vanderbilt, home for Marshall, at Old Dominion and home vs. Rutgers. A 3-1 or 4-0 record may portend a better showing in the ACC.
Iowa was 10-4 overall and won the Big Ten West with a 7-2 mark. The Hawkeyes are returning nine starters on offense and the same number on defense, and that doesn't include Michigan transfer, QB Cade McNamara.
Iowa State went 6-3 in conference and 7-6 overall, but returns nine starters on offense and nine on defense. Things may be looking up in the state of Iowa from a football perspective.
Nebraska returns 10 offensive starters and seven on defense, plus their kicker and punter from a team that was just 5-7 last year. Can they get over the hump and at least make a bowl game this season under Matt Ruhle?
Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, SMU, Utah, and Virginia all return 16 starters from the prior season. Look for a few of them to prosper in 2024.
Baylor was wrecked and wracked by injuries in 2023, but has 16 starters returning from their 3-9 flop. Depending on the quarterback situation, they could sting a few Big 12 opponents.
The Cal Bears enter he ACC this season and has nine returning starters to a defense that allowed 426 points in 2023. Long road trips for them and their visiting opponents could result in some unexpected results.
Like Cal, Stanford joins the ACC and will have travel issues. They were just 2-7 in the PAC-12 last season but return 16 starters.
Georgia Tech went 5-3 in the ACC last season and 7-6 overall. They have eight starters returning - including QB Haynes King - on an offense that was fifth in scoring in the conference.
2. Georgia Bulldogs SEC
3. Penn State Nittany Lions Big Ten
4. Oregon Ducks Big Ten
5. Texas Longhorns SEC
6. Florida State Seminoles ACC
7. LSU Tigers SEC
8. Ole Miss Rebels SEC
9. Clemson Tigers ACC
10. Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish FBS Indep.
12. Alabama Crimson Tide SEC
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys Big 12
14. SMU Mustangs ACC
15. Missouri Tigers SEC
16. Tennessee Volunteers SEC
17. Kansas Jayhawks Big 12
18. USC Trojans Big Ten
19. Oklahoma Sooners SEC
20. Iowa State Cyclones Big 12
21. Louisville Cardinals ACC
22. Kansas State Wildcats Big 12
23. Miami Hurricanes ACC
24. Arizona Wildcats Big 12
25. Florida Gators SEC
Notes:
At Last, A Playoff System That Might Work
It's been 10 years since the College Football Playoff (CFP) system began, with the obvious limitations of just four teams chosen by an often second-guessed ranking system. However, even with the small sample size, the national champions have been crowned by accomplishments on the field and without much fuss from fans.
Finally, after years of tinkering and trying to appease the various bowls and sponsors, college football has managed to institute an expanded playoff formula while keeping the bowl game format somewhat intact.
In practice, here's how it works. The CFP Selection Committee ranks the top 25 teams at the end of the season. For the 2024 and 2025 seasons, the 12 playoff participants consist of the five highest ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest ranked teams. The four highest ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and receive a first-round bye. The schools seeded five through eight will host those seeded nine through 12 in first-round games.
So, while the system is more inclusive and expanded, it's still based on rankings, though now winning your conference actually has meaning in terms of seeding. The highest ranked conference champions are likely to be, in no particular order, the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and then it gets interesting.
The PAC-12 is virtually non-existent. It now consists of just Washington State and Oregon State, the rest of the teams departed to other conferences, so it might as well be called the PAC-2. If either of these teams do well, they might be the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which would set off a firestorm of protest from the other, smaller conferences, including the AAC, Mid-American, Mountain West, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt. But, that's only an outside chance.
What is possible is that a couple of non-major conference teams get into the playoffs, via winning their conference and being highly ranked or just being in the top 12. It ought to be fun, and much better than the former four-team set-up.
Here's how the CFP explains the seeding and site selections:
The 12 participating teams will be the five conference champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams.
The ranking of the teams will continue to be done by a selection committee.
The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and will receive a first-round bye. The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions ranked in the top four will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.
The eight teams seeded No. 5-12 will play in a first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.).
The selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.
For more about the playoff system, visit the CFP website.
This is the schedule for the expanded College Football Playoff:
Fri., Dec. 20
CFP First Round Game
8 p.m.
ABC & ESPN
Sat., Dec. 21
CFP First Round Game
Noon
TNT
Sat., Dec. 21
CFP First Round Game
4 p.m.
TNT
Sat., Dec. 21
CFP First Round Game
8 p.m.
ABC & ESPN
Tue., Dec. 31
Playoff Quarterfinal (Fiesta Bowl)
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Wed., Jan. 1
Playoff Quarterfinal (Peach Bowl)
1 p.m.
ESPN
Wed., Jan. 1
Playoff Quarterfinal (Rose Bowl)
5 p.m.
ESPN
Wed., Jan. 1
Playoff Quarterfinal (Sugar Bowl)
8:45 p.m.
ESPN
Thu., Jan. 9
Playoff Semifinal (Orange Bowl)
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Fri., Jan. 10
Playoff Semifinal (Cotton Bowl)
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Mon., Jan. 20
CFP National Championship (Atlanta, Ga.)
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
Update: Friday, August 2:
Hall of Fame Game ended early due to thunderstorms. Depending upon the sportsbook, game bets - either against the point spread or money line - were cancelled, since the game only lasted 42 minutes and the standard for an game to be deemed official is 55 minutes. Total bets - over/under - may have been honored, since the score as of the cancellation was Bears 21, Texans 17, well above the final line, which was between 31 and 33 points.
As noted by Fearless Rick, the OVER was probably the best bet and you should have gotten paid on it if you bet it.
As for the game outcome, no excuse for the Texans to blow leads of 10-0 and 17-7, but, while the game will go down in the NFL official books as a Bears win and a Houston loss, wagers should have been cancelled.
If you followed the coin flip pick, which was on Chicago, well, dems da breaks. Wagering on NFL preseason games is extremely risky, probably the riskiest bets available, except for, hmmm, let's see, presidential elections?
Fearless Rick's Pro Football Picks
Thursday, August 1:
Hall of Fame Game (Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, Canton Ohio)
8:00 pm ET, Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 31) - New Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus makes his debut with the reworked Bears, announcing that the likely starters, including top draft pick, QB Caleb Williams, will not play in Canton against the Texans. Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent gets the start.
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans turned around the Texans last year from a 3-13-1 team in 2022 to a 10-7 mark and a playoff win in 2023. Thanks to the emergence of rookie QB C. J. Stroud and receivers Nico Collins and Noah Brown, the squad is poised for another playoff run in 2024.
The Bears were 7-11 last year, but managed to trade up and snag Caleb Williams out of USC as the #1 pick in the draft, shuffling off exciting, but error-prone Justin Fields, sending him to Pittsburgh for a 2025 draft pick. While Williams won't see action, another first-round pick, Rome Odunze from Washington has dazzling skills and will likely be a starter. He could make an appearance here, though with the extra pre-season game, the coaches may be over-protective.
Both teams will field a fair share of rookies and free agents battling for positions. For the Bears, punter Tory Taylor was a surprise fourth round pick. He purportedly has a big leg. Battling for position at center will be Ryan Bates and Coleman Shelton.
Houston will be looking hard at cornerback Kamari Lassiter, chosen as the #42 pick in the draft out of Georgia. Veterans C.J. Henderson, Jeff Okudah, and Mike Ford should also get plenty of live playing time as they seek starting roles in the defensive secondary.
The Texans probably have an edge in this game. They were 5.5-point underdogs when the odds were first open, but that line has dropped significantly, to the current Bears - 1.5
The new kickoff rule, which was approved on a one-year trial basis will be interesting in and of itself. How the teams handle it on both sides of the ball may offer some clues to how it will evolve during the season. There may be some big plays out of it and advantageous field positions for both offense and defense. If anything, it could add to the scoring potential, so the take is on the OVER, set at 31.
The NFL provides a breakdown of how the rule will work under game conditions. Everybody will get to see it live at the Hall of Fame game, including the refs, who should have their hands full with this one.
The league desperately wanted to make kickoffs more exciting, as the rules and fear of injury had turned kickoffs into essentially a dead ball play, with kickers usually driving the ball through the end zone for a touchback.
Coin Flip Pick: Chicago
Fearless Rick's Prediction: Texans 23 Bears 17
On Saturday, August 3, former Bears, Steve McMichael, Devin Hester and Julius Peppers will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame along with former Texan wide receiver, Andre Johnson.
Other players who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this year include Dwight Freeney, the ferocious defensive lineman out of Indianapolis, San Francisco linebacker Patrick Willis, and Denver Broncos' linebacker Randy Gradishar.
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NFL Forecast Feature, Page 6
MLB update at Sports Extra, page 7a.
Week 1 College Football Picks
Week 0 (August 24) Results:
Thursday, August 29
7:00 pm Western Carolina at (24) NC State (-32.5, 60.5) - Late line for this contest. Figure it to be a 30-point+ blowout by the Wolfpack who were 9-4 overall and 6-2 in the ACC with an emphasis on defense.
Western Carolina doesn't stack up well.
Coin Flip: NC State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Wolfpack 42 Catamounts 6
The Racers of Murray State were just 2-9 last season, so no upset is expected.
Coin Flip: Murray State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Tigers 49 Racers 14
Coin Flip: Southern Utah
Fearless Rick's Pick: Utes 38 Thunderbirds 24
7:00 pm Temple at (16) Oklahoma (-42.5, 59) - OK, so Temple was just 3-7 last season, with big losses at Rutgers (36-7), vs. SMU (55-0) and Miami (41-7), but they are Division 1 (American Athletic) and would like not to be blown out in their opener.
The Sooners join the SEC, but conference play doesn't start for them until Sept. 21 vs. Tennessee. This is strictly a tune-up, but Oklahoma has a record of blowing away opponents in non-conference games, like they did to Arkansas State (73-0) and Tulsa (66-17) last season. Sooners recruit well and should cover this somewhat thin line.
Coin Flip: Oklahoma
Fearless Rick's Pick: Sooners 56 Owls 7
Stanford moves to the ACC, which means lots of long flights on road games. The Cardinal went 3-9 last season and were routed by six different ranked opponents, the closest a 42-33 loss to Washington, the worst, a 56-10 loss at USC or a 62-17 beatdown at Oregon. Expect TCU to come out victorious.
Coin Flip: Stanford
Fearless Rick's Pick: Horned Frogs 42 Cardinal 24
12:00 pm (14) Clemson at (1) Georgia (-13.5, 48.5) - Carson Beck returns for the Bulldogs along with 15 other starters, which should make this a tough opener for the Tigers, a team that went 9-4 last year and topped a solid Kentucky squad in the Gator Bowl, 38-35.
Both defenses could be top 10 this season, so this may become a field position battle with scoring hard to come by. Clemson could cover, but it's hard to see them upending Georgia.
Coin Flip: Clemson
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bulldogs 24 Tigers 21
The only question here is whether Iowa can score 30 points, which should be enough to cover the spread.The Redbirds play in the Missouri Valley conference and were 6-5 last season, their lowest point total 13, in a one-point loss at Eastern Illinois. Iowa returns 18 starters and adds punch with Michigan transfer, QB Cade McNamara, but still has to win by more than three TDs, a tall order.
Coin Flip: Illinois State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Hawkeyes 31 Redbirds 16
Penn State has a favorable schedule and will vie for the Big 10 title along with USC, Iowa, Oregon, and Ohio State after going 10-3 in 2023. The Nittany Lions return 16 starters, West Virginia, 15. Penn State looks a notch better. Last year, their only losses were 20-12 at Ohio State, 24-15 vs Michigan and 38-25 vs. Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.
Coin Flip: West Virginia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Nittany Lions 35 Mountaineers 21
The Mocs come out of the Southern Conference, where they were a respectable 8-5 last season, but Alabama snuffed them, 66-10, and they lost twice to Furman, 17-14, and 26-7. The line is huge but the game is in Knoxville, where the fans and players will be amped up. Huge line to cover, but the Mocs may find scoring at a premium.
Coin Flip: Tennessee
Fearless Rick's Pick: Volunteers 54 Mocs 10
Even though Akron's defense is pretty good, they're likely no match for what the Buckeyes bring to the table. Ohio State was 11-0 before losing to Michigan, 30-24, and flopping in the Cotton Bowl in a 14-3 loss to Missouri. There are few teams in college football with as much talent as the Buckeyes possess.
Coin Flip: Akron
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buckeyes 63 Zips 0
Colorado State's main claim to fame last season was beating Boise State, 31-30, but other than that they were 5-7 overall and just 3-5 in the Mountain West. They will look like victims when this is all over.
Coin Flip: Texas
Fearless Rick's Pick: Longhorns 54 Rams 14
The Hurricanes finished 20023 with a 7-6 mark, but they were competitive in nearly every game, their worst losses at North Carolina, 41-31, and at NC State, 20-6. After a 6-2 start, they went 1-4 down the stretch, but should get a hard-fought road win here and start thinking about their relatively easy path to an ACC championship game.
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick's Pick: Hurricanes 34 Gators 31
Head coach Matt Rhule is in his second year at Nebraska. A 5-7 finish was not appreciated in Lincoln as the 'Huskers lost their final four games to Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Iowa, albeit by close scores, three of them by a field goal and the loss at Wisconsin settled in overtime. Rhule has a spotty record as a head coach both in the collage ranks and the NFL. This game may prove little, but it's likely to be a lot closer and low-scoring than the line indicates. UTEP could upset.
Coin Flip: Nebraska
Fearless Rick's Pick: Cornhuskers 20 Miners 17
OK, the Hilltoppers were blown away at Ohio State last season, 63-10, but they were competitive in all their other games and finished the 2023 campaign winning four of their last five.
As for Alabama, the retirement of Nick Saban looms large. Kalen DeBoer takes over after two highly successful seasons at Washington, reaching the playoffs last season. The Crimson Tide defeated Georgia last season to win the SEC and then lost to Michigan, 27-20 in overtime in the CFP semifinal. They start the season ranked #5 because of QB Jalen Milroe and because, well, they're Alabama. A host of players were lost to the NFL and there are likely to be some kinks to be worked out in this opener. The Tide should win, but by how much?
Coin Flip: Western Kentucky
Fearless Rick's Pick: Crimson Tide 42 Hilltoppers 27
The Ducks are highly touted at #3 preseason. They are expected to vie for the Big Ten title their first season in the conference. After a 12-2 mark in 2023, the Ducks should show their usual offensive flair, but there's no Bo Nix nor leading rusher, Bucky Irving, both gone to the NFL.
Winning this game by 45 points is questionable, no matter how good Oregon appears to be. That's a lot of points in what could become a shootout.
Coin Flip: Idaho
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ducks 45 Vandals 34
Notre Dame's schedule may be a bit tougher than it appears. They have Louisville, Georgia Tech, Florida State and USC down the road, so this game looks like a must-win for them. The Irish were 10-3 last season.
After going 7-6 last year, the Aggies don't appear to be a top tier team. Five of their six losses were to ranked opponents.
Coin Flip: Texas A&M
Fearless Rick's Pick: Fighting Irish 35 Aggies 27
Fresno State was 9-4 on the 2023 season and returns as one of the stalwarts of the Mountain West conference. The Wolverines might be surprised at the Bulldog's execution on offense. Mini-back Malik Sherrod might be a difference maker here. Upset looms.
Coin Flip: Michigan
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bulldogs 24 Wolverines 21
7:30 pm (23) USC at (13) LSU (-4.5, 64.5) - Losing their opener last season to Florida State, 45-24, the LSU Tigers aren't backing down from quality opponents at the start of the season. They finished 2023 with a solid 10-3 mark, defeating Wisconsin, 35-31, in the Reliaquest Bowl. With Jayden Daniels gone to the NFL, the Tigers will go with Louisiana native Garrett Nussmeier at QB and could be one of the better SEC teams this season.
USC also lost their starting quarterback, #1 draft pick Caleb Williams, who admittedly didn't have all the answers as the Trojans lost five of their last six regular season games to finish a disappointing 8-5 after defeating Louisville, 42-28, in the Holiday Bowl. Miller Moss is the likely starter for USC as they begin their initial season in the Big Ten.
Don't count on LSU losing two straight season openers. They're a proud and talented bunch.
Coin Flip: USC
Fearless Rick's Pick: Tigers 44 Trojans 27
7:30 pm Boston College at (10) Florida State (-15.5, 50) - Having already been upset by Georgia Tech, 24-21, last week, the Seminoles must prove to themselves that they are national contenders. Remember, they were snubbed by the selection committee of the CFP last season after going undefeated but losing QB Jordan Travis to injury. Travis was drafted by the NY Jets, so the starting job went to transfer, D.J. Uiagalelei, who was unspectacular in the Georgia Tech loss.
Last season, Florida State defeated BC, 31-29. The Eagles were and up-and-down 7-6 last year, likely smell blood in the water, but are probably no match for Florida State looking to bounce back in a second ACC game.
Coin Flip: Boston College
Fearless Rick's Pick: Seminoles 31 Eagles 17
Fearless Rick and Coin Flip NFL Football Picks
NFL Preseason Week 3
Results: Week 2 NFL Preseason:
Thursday, August 22
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 34.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:00 pm - Indy beat Arizona last week, 21-13, which isn't saying much, but the Bengals are 0-2 and Joe Burrow is not expected to play. Still, the Bengals rate a better team and are home, getting a load of points. Tempting, to say the least.
Coin Flip: Indianapolis
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bengals 21 Colts 17
Coin Flip: Chicago
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bears 23 Chiefs 20
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 35.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 7:00 pm - With Trevor Lawrence expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, the Jags, who have allowed only 20 points in their two preseason wins, may build a comfy lead for second half back-ups.
Coin Flip: Jacksonville
Fearless Rick's Pick: Jaguars 27 Falcons 13
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buccaneers 21 Dolphins 13
Coin Flip: San Francisco
Fearless Rick's Pick: 49ers 30 Raiders 6
Carolina Panthers (-4, 31) at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 pm - Bills' starters are not expected to suit up for this final tune-up, but they're probably still good enough to hang in against the 0-2 Panthers and spring the minor upset.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 16 Panthers 10
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Fearless Rick's Pick: Lions 17 Steelers 14
Coin Flip: Green Bay
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 16 Packers 10
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Texans 26 Rams 17
Coin Flip: Minnesota
Fearless Rick's Pick: Eagles 17 Vikings 13
Coin Flip: Dallas
Fearless Rick's Pick: Cowboys 20 Chargers 10
Coin Flip: NY Giants
Fearless Rick's Pick: Giants 16 Jets 13
Coin Flip: Seattle
Fearless Rick's Pick: Seahawks 17 Browns 13
Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 36.5) at New Orleans Saints, 2:00 pm - The Saints are probably going to get Derek Carr more reps following last week's 16-10 loss at SF. Backups, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler were unimpressive. Titans plan on going with starters for the first half and are 2-0 preseason.
Coin Flip: New Orleans
Fearless Rick's Pick: Titans 24 Saints 17
Coin Flip: Denver
Fearless Rick's Pick: Broncos 31 Cardinals 10
Coin Flip: Washington
Fearless Rick's Pick: Patriots 17 Commanders 10
Florida State (-10, 55.5) at Georgia Tech, 12:00 pm ESPN - The Bulldogs return a wealth of starters and subs from their 7-6 2023 campaign and are not a lay down against the Seminoles, who were undefeated last season, but snubbed by the CFP selectors and had many defectors in their 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Trying to erase that smudge, Florida State obviously had legitimate gripes at the end of last season and will be looking to impress coaches, fans, scouts, themselves. Might be worth risking a sou or two on Georgia Tech just for grins, but under seems the solid play.
Coin Flip: Georgia Tech
Fearless Rick's Pick: Seminoles 31 Yellow Jackets 16
Coin Flip: New Mexico
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bobcats 48 Lobos 15
Coin Flip: Nevada
Fearless Rick's Pick: Mustangs 52 Wolf Pack 10
Coin Flip: Delaware State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Rainbow Warriors 56 Hornets 3
Preseason Week 2
Last Week's Results:
Note: Week 2 is when many teams will put in more starters, especially at the QB position, so expect to see more regulars in the first half at least.
Thursday, August 15 (all times Eastern)
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-2.5, 36), 7:00 pm - Patriots made quick work of Carolina last week with a 17-3 win. Eagles didn't look too bad topping the Ravens, 16-13. Backup Kenny Pickett was sharp and will likely QB 2nd half. Jalen Hurts probably will play most of 1st half.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Eagles 24 Patriots 14
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 35.5), 12:00 pm - Ravens look to bounce back from 16-13 loss to Philly last week. Atlanta, losers to Miami, 20-13, counter with more Michael Penix Jr. Edge to Ravens on experience and home turf.
Coin Flip: Baltimore
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 17 Falcons 14
Coin Flip: Chicago
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bengals 23 Bears 20
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Texans 30 Giants 9
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Fearless Rick's Pick: Chiefs 24 Lions 13
Coin Flip: Minnesota
Fearless Rick's Pick: Browns 24 Vikings 7
Coin Flip: Carolina
Fearless Rick's Pick: Jets 20 Panthers 6
Coin Flip: Arizona
Fearless Rick's Pick: Colts 30 Cardinals 17
Coin Flip: Washington
Fearless Rick's Pick: Dolphins 21 Commanders 10
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 17 Steelers 14
Coin Flip: Seattle
Fearless Rick's Pick: Titans 20 Seahawks 17
Coin Flip: Los Angeles Rams
Fearless Rick's Pick: Rams 13 Chargers 10
Coin Flip: Tampa Bay
Fearless Rick's Pick: Jaguars 33 Buccaneers 20
Coin Flip: Las Vegas
Fearless Rick's Pick: Cowboys 23 Raiders 20
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (-7, 39), 8:00 pm - Somewhat interesting to see the Broncos a TD favorite against the Packers, who nearly went to the NFC Championship game last season. Was Bo Nix that impressive in Denver's 34-30 win at Indy? Guess so. Not taking the bait, though. Denver may win, but the Pack figures to keep things close in a shootout.
Coin Flip: Green Bay
Fearless Rick's Pick: Broncos 30 Packers 27
Coin Flip: San Francisco
Fearless Rick's Pick: 49ers 24 Saints 17
Fearless Rick and Coin Flip Football Picks
Thursday, August 8 (all times Eastern)
7:00 pm Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-6, 35.5) - Patriots are probably eager to get top draft pick, QB Drake May (North Carolina) some live action, so expect the Pats to put up early points and cruise to a win.
Coin Flip: New England
Fearless Rick's Pick: Patriots 24 Panthers 10
Coin Flip: New York Giants
Fearless Rick's Pick: Lions 24 Giants 21
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 38.5) at Miami Dolphins - 7:00 pm - Red flags all over this line. Dolphins have loads of talented people trying to make the team; Falcons looking at #1 draft pick, Michael Penix Jr. to rally the offense. May be some picks and turnovers in key spots.
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick's Pick: Dolphins 23 Falcons 20
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Texans 24 Steelers 10
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 21 Eagles 13
Washington Commanders (-2.5, 34.5) at New York Jets - 12:00 pm - With the starting QB job up for grabs, Washington may use all of them - Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Jeff Driskel, Sam Hartman - in this game.
Coin Flip: Washington
Fearless Rick's Pick: Commanders 17 Jets 13
Coin Flip: Bears
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 31 Bears 14
Coin Flip: Raiders
Fearless Rick's Pick: Vikings 24 Raiders 20
Coin Flip: Packers
Fearless Rick's Pick: Packers 21 Browns 20
Coin Flip: Bengals
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bengals 17 Buccaneers 14
Coin Flip: Titans
Fearless Rick's Pick: 49ers 27 Titans 14
Coin Flip: Jaguars
Fearless Rick's Pick: Jaguars 21 Chiefs 10
Coin Flip: Chargers
Fearless Rick's Pick: Chargers 21 Seahawks 17
Coin Flip: Saints
Fearless Rick's Pick: Saints 20 Cardinals 10
Denver Broncos (-1.5, 37.5) at Indianapolis Colts - 1:00 pm (NFL Network) - Denver ought to win all of its preseason games because they won't win many during the regular season.
Coin Flip: Broncos
Fearless Rick's Pick: Broncos 18 Colts 13
Coin Flip: Cowboys
Fearless Rick's Pick: Cowboys 30 Rams 13
Your ad could be in the next issue of idleguy.com for as little as $6 per month. Contact Fearless Rick using the form on page 12 for more information.
By Fearless Rick and Coin Flip
Rick: 0-4; Flip: 4-0
8:00 pm Murray State at (11) Missouri (46.5, 57.5) - Missouri is highly ranked preseason, which is unusual. QB Brady Cook returns for his senior year after leading the Tigers to an 11-2 record in 2023, including a 14-3 win over Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Mizzou looks like a team that can make the expanded 12-team playoffs, maybe even winning the SEC.
9:00 pm Southern Utah at (12) Utah (-38, 53.5) - The Thunderbirds try to improve on last season's 6-5 record, but probably won't record a win here, although they stymied Arizona State in last year's opener, losing, 24-21. The Utes move from the PAC-12 to the Big Ten and lose a lot of firepower on offense. Potential minor upset here. Don't expect Southern Utah to be embarrassed though the Utes return 16 starters.
Friday, August 30
10:30 pm TCU (-9.5, 60) at Stanford - The Horned Frogs remain in the Big 12 and may have aspirations on winning the conference should their defense show improvement. QB Josh Hoover threw for 2,206 yards in seven games last year, but TCU still finished 5-7.
Saturday, August 31
12:00 pm Illinois State at (25) Iowa (-22.5, 41) - The Hawkeyes went 10-4 in 2023, and have one of the top defenses in the country, allowing no more than 16 points in any of their wins last season. If they can find a way to generate any offense, they should be a contender for the Big Ten title, along with Ohio State and Penn State.
12:00 pm (8) Penn State (-8.5, 51.5) at West Virginia - The Mountaineers have had limited success in the Big 12, a trend that is likely to continue in 2024. The Mountaineers were 9-4 last season after starting out with a 38-15 loss at Penn State, so this is a return game and figures to be closer, though not by much.
12:45 pm Chattanooga at (15) Tennessee (-38.5, 57) - Lots of new faces for the Volunteers, but two things are certain, their defense will be solid and QB Nico Iamaleava will provide thrills on offense.
3:30 pm Akron at (2) Ohio State (-48.5, 60.5) - Hard to see Ohio State not up by four or five TDs in the first half here and coasting to a huge victory over the Zips, a team that won just two games in 2023.
3:30 pm Colorado State at (4) Texas (-32, 60.5) - The Longhorns will be competitive in the SEC, but winning the conference is a tall order. This meeting with the Rams should provide some clues about just how good Texas is after winning the Big 12 last year with a 12-1 mark and losing in the CFP to Washington, 37-31. QB Quinn Ewers returns along with 14 other starters.
3:30 pm (19) Miami (-2.5, 54) at Florida - Great match-up for an opener, and one that will be a battle. Florida is retooling despite returning 15 starters, as their 5-7 record was well short of expectations, the defense often miserable at times and the offense inconsistent. While they are likely to be a better team in 2024, they still have to find a way through a rough SEC schedule.
3:30 pm UTEP at Nebraska (-27.5, 49.5) - On the surface, this looks like an easy way to open the season for the Cornhuskers. UTEP was just 3-9 last season, but is looking to regain some level of respect after two straight losing seasons. The Miners may be improved enough to hang with Nebraska for much of this game.
7:00 pm Western Kentucky at (5) Alabama (-31.5, 59.5) - If you're shopping around the opening weekend of college football for a shocker, look no further. The Hilltoppers are loaded on offense, and, while their defense is likely to be pushed around by Alabama, they will be able to score some points. They went 8-5 last season, winning the Famous Toastery Bowl (no, really) over Old Dominion, 38-35 in OT.
7:30 pm Idaho at (3) Oregon (-44.5, 62.5) - The Idaho Vandals are a very competitive team, going 9-4 last season, mostly against Big Sky opponents and this game also stacks up as a regional rivalry between bordering states.
7:30 pm (7) Notre Dame at (20) Texas A&M (-3, 46.5) - The Fighting Irish ranked 8th nationally in points scored (38.7) and allowed (16.6) in 2023, so they're probably going to have another quality defense, something the Aggies will be well aware of coming in. The Irish lost QB Sam Hartman to the NFL, so Steve Angela will try to replicate his success.
7:30 pm Fresno State at (9) Michigan (-21, 45.5) - Besides losing their head coach, Michigan returns only one offensive starter and four on defense. Considering that level of turnover, they might not be better than a .500 team in 2024.
Sunday, September 1
Monday, September 2
Rick 10-5-1; Flip: 7-8-1
Cumulative:
Rick: 20-11-1; Flip: 17-14-1
Chicago Bears (-1, 32) at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 pm - This should be a fun one, especially if both Mahomes and #1 draftee, Caleb Williams, see action. Bears look explosive on offense, whereas the KC defense seems to be just going through the motions, allowing 50 in two games. They may want to tighten up a bit, but Williams looks like the real deal.
Friday, August 23
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 37.5), 7:30 pm - Tua Tagovailoa may see some action in the first half, but he's likely to be without his top three receivers, all questionable. Baker Mayfield and a host of other starters will go for the Bucs, coming off an unimpressive 20-7 loss at Jacksonville last week. Tough call, but looks for the Bucs to eke out a win.
San Francisco 49ers (-6, 35) at Las Vegas Raiders, 10:00 pm - The 49ers looked solid in last week's 16-10 win over the Saints and should handle the 0-2 Raiders with relative ease.
Saturday, August 24
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 35.5) at Detroit Lions, 1:00 pm - The Lions know what they've got whether Jared Goff and other starters see much action here or not. Pittsburgh is still searching for an identity with Russell Wilson playing the first half here. After that, who knows. Juicy point spread for the home squad.
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (-3, 33.5), 1:00 pm - Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry aren't likely to play at Green Bay, so Jordan Love and other Packer starters may get rest as well. Tough call between two likely playoff-bound teams, each 1-1 preseason.
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans (-6.5, 34), 1:00 pm - Stetson Bennett led a 13-9 Rams win over the Chargers last week, and, while Matthew Stafford is healthy enough to play, his appearance may be limited. Houston may get C.J. Stroud added reps, which spells trouble for LA.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 33.5), 1:00 pm - Both teams appear to be headed in the right direction, but Philly appears to have more depth and they're home in what's pretty much a pick 'em game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 33), 4:00 pm - The Chargers have scored only 12 points in their two games and aren't likely to find the end zone often against a solid Dallas defense.
New York Giants (-2.5, 31.5) at New York Jets, 7:30 pm - Aaron Rodgers hasn't taken a snap in either of the Jets two preseason wins, and probably will be on the sidelines against the crosstown rivals. Giants' QB, Daniel Jones, threw a pair of picks in a 28-10 loss at Texas last week and appears to need more reps. Look for a better performance and maybe a W.
Cleveland Browns (-2, 37) at Seattle Seahawks, 10:00 pm - Seattle beat the Chargers, 16-3, in their opener, then lost at Tennessee, 16-15, last week. The Browns have not looked very good in losses to Green Bay and Minnesota and DeShaun Watson is probably going to sit.
Sunday, August 25
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 35.5) (CBS), 4:30 pm - 0-2 Cardinals may be looking at another long, losing season, while the 2-0 Broncos have found new hope with Bo Nix behind center.
New England Patriots (-4, 33.5) at Washington Commanders (NBC), 8:00 pm - Patriots have allowed a league-low 17 points in two preseason games, including their 17-3 win over Carolina and last week's 14-13 loss to the Eagles. 0-2 Commanders have scored only 23 points total.
College Picks for "Week 0"
Saturday, August 24
Montana State (-11.5, 54.5) at New Mexico, 4:00 pm FS1 - The Lobos were essentially defenseless last season, allowing 34 or more points in seven of their eight losses (4-8). Montana State went 8-4 in the Big Sky last season and are perennial contenders with plenty of firepower on offense.
SMU (-25.5, 56.5) at Nevada, 8:00 pm CBSSN - The Mustangs are a likely ranked team by season's end. How well prepped they are for the opener will show as Nevada - 2-10 last season - hopes to be improved. Tough way to start for the Vegas squad and lessons will be learned.
Delaware State at Hawaii (-39.5, 57.5), 11:59 pm FS1 - Joe Biden must have given some of his "10% for the Big Guy" money to his home state school for a Hawaiian vacation of sorts. The line says the Rainbow Warriors will have them for lunch. Seems reasonable.
Rick: 10-6; Coin Flip: 10-6
Saturday, Aug. 17
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-6, 36.5), 1:00 pm - Caleb Williams the story here for the Bears, who trounced Buffalo, 33-6, last week with 20 4th quarter points. Bengals will have Joe Burrow for most of the first half, and that may spell trouble for Chicago.
New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3, 39.5), 1:00 pm - Texans may want to flex some muscles against the Giants. They are looking like division winners, while the Giants are still looking for an offense. Extended play from Daniel Jones may help somewhat, but they look overmatched here.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 39), 4:00 pm - Lions couldn't get much going in 14-3 loss at the Giants last week other than backup QB Hendon Hooker going 5-for-9, 36 yards, and rushing four times for 34 more. KC was in walk-through mode last week, losing to Jacksonville, 26-13. Expect a different outcome for the Chiefs here.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (-4.5, 36.5), 4:25 pm - With J.J. McCarthy gone for the season, the Vikes are down to Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, or Jaren Hall. Expect to see all three. Cleveland will suit up DeSean Watson at QB, but look for the Browns' defense to dominate.
New York Jets (-1, 31.5) at Carolina Panthers, 7:00 pm - Jets come off a 20-17 home victory over Washington and should have Aaron Rodgers ready to go here. The Panthers, well, may be the league's worst team.
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 36.5), 7:00 pm - The Cardinals going to find out if Kyler Murray is a keeper or just a flash in the pan this season. Colts' defense needs to tighten up after a 34-30 loss to Denver last week. Second straight home game might give the fans something to cheer about.
Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-1, 37.5), 7:00 pm - Dolphins are 1-0 after dusting the Falcons last week, 20-13, and get a second straight home game, plus probably starting Tua Tagovailoa and other regulars. Washington has a QB merry-go-round and probably won't impress much.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 36), 7:00 pm - The Bills were embarrassed by the Bears last week in a 33-6 loss. Look for a big bounce back with Josh Allen calling plays and Pittsburgh wondering why they traded away Kenny Pickett. Russell Wilson is a likely starter for the Steelers, but he's learning a new playbook and may not be sharp.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (even, 37.5), 7:00 pm - The Titans had some things going for them behind Will Levis and Mason Rudolph last week in their 17-13 win over the 49ers and should put up a solid effort against the Seahawks, who played heady defense in their 16-3 win at the Chargers. Close call, but the home boys should take this one.
Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 33.5), 7:05 pm - The battle for LA might not include Rams' QB Matthew Stafford, who is questionable for the game. Stetson Bennett, anyone? Chargers were downright miserable last week, losing at home to Seattle, 16-3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 37), 7:30 pm - Jacksonville is likely to have an edge if Trevor Lawrence plays much of the first half. Mac Jones and C.J.Beathard stack up well in the latter stages. Tampa Bay's front seven is already a little banged up, so the Jags should rip.
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5, 39.5), 10:00 pm - Dallas played just well enough to lose by a point to the Rams on the road last week, but should be better in Vegas. The Raiders come to home after their own one-point loss at Minnesota and lots of question marks on both sides of the ball.
Sunday, August 18
New Orleans Saints (-1, 38.5) at San Francisco 49ers, 8:00 pm - The Saints squeaked by Arizona last week, 16-14, but the water is deeper out by SF Bay. The 49ers were not at full bore last week, losing at Tennessee, 17-13. Expecting more offense from both sides, but the 49ers have an edge defensively.
7:00 pm Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-4, 35.5) - The Giants have a lot to prove to themselves, plus a load of questionable positions to fill. Doubtful that many Detroit starters will see action. Kind of a risky play, but, if Lions' backup QB Hendon Hooker gets extended playing time, there could be some second half fireworks.
Friday, August 9:
Houston Texans (-2.5, 37.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers - 7:00 pm (NFL Network) - With the Steelers looking to revamp their offensive line, hungry Texans will be hounding Pittsburgh's backup QBs. Might get a bit ugly.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 34) at Baltimore Ravens - 7:30 pm - After the way the Eagles folded late last season, there are open spots to fill and players will be seeking answers. Ravens have little to gain here, but backups are likely to show some spunk.
Saturday, August 10
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 39) - 1:00 pm (NFL Network) - The Bears will likely get top draft pick, Caleb Williams, extended playing time. Look for the Bills to treat him rudely. Buffalo backup, Mitchell Trubisky, will show off his skills.
Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 39.5) at Minnesota Vikings - 4:00 pm (NFL Network) - Minnesota has a number of QB options, including draftee, J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) and suspected starter, Sam Darnold. Raiders unlikely to cover Minnesota receivers well.
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (-3.5, 39.5) - 4:25 pm - This is possibly the best game of the weekend. Both teams have loads of talent and are looking forward to playoff-bound seasons. Take the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 38.5) - 7:00 pm - Will the Bengals start Joe Burrow? Maybe, but he's not likely to be in there for long. Neither team will be scoring much, so the score may stay under and the points are tempting.
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 38.5) - 7:00 pm - Tennessee has a new head coach and lots of question marks throughout the lineup on both sides of the ball. 49ers don't need to show much to win this.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 40.5) - 7:00 pm (NFL Network) - Jacksonville will be hyped to be hosting the Super Bowl champs, while the Chiefs will be sleep-walking through this one.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, 35) at Los Angeles Chargers - 7:05 pm - An intriguing match-up of teams hopeful entering the new season. Chargers may run the ball more than expected and find some success. Both teams seek answers on defense.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 37) - 8:00 pm - Kyler Murray will be the starter for the Cards once the regular season starts, but may only play a few series here. Saints will give Spencer Rattler a long look and he'll likely impress.
Sunday, August 11
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 35) at Los Angeles Rams - 4:30 pm (NFL Network) - Nothing is for certain pre-season other than squabbles from Dallas players, and the Rams have issues as well, such as, who is going to play QB here? Cowboy defenders may have a field day.
