Fearless Rick & Coin Flip Week 18 NFL Picks

Week 17 Results: Rick: 10-6; Flip: 9-7
Cumulative: Rick: 126-125-5; Flip: 136-115-5

Saturday, January 3

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 43.5) 4:30 pm - It’s win and you’re in for the Panthers. If Carolina defeats Tampa Bay, they would win the NFC South with a 9-8 record. If Tampa Bay wins, both teams would be 8-9, but, the Panthers could still take the division if Atlanta defeats New Orleans Sunday.

Atlanta is 7-9, beat the Saints in Week 12, 24-10, and they would be 8-9, along with the Panthers and Bucs. A three-way tie in a division is settled by head-to-head records and the Panthers would win, with a 3-1 mark. Tampa Bay would be 2-2, and Atlanta, 1-3.

Hopefully, it won’t come to that and Carolina will take care of business. The Bucs have lost seven of their last eight, including losses to the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers, and last week’s 20-17 loss at Miami. Count on the game ending with the Panthers picking off a Baker Mayfield pass. He’s famous for it.

Coin Flip: Tampa Bay

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 17

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 47.5) at San Francisco 49ers 8:00 pm - The winner of this contest gets a first round bye in the playoffs. If it’s San Francisco, both they and the Seahawks would be 13-4, and they would get the nod, having beaten Seattle in Week 1, 17-13.

For Seattle, a win would leave them at 13-4, alone at the top, and San Francisco a wild card. Both teams have won six straight. The points here may or may not matter, but the 49ers getting anywhere from one to two points appears a logical choice.

Coin Flip: San Francisco

Fearless Rick’s Pick: 49ers 26 Seahawks 24

Sunday, January 4

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 43) 1:00 pm - Since Atlanta could play a part of the NFC South division race by winning this game, and thus, making Saturday’s Carolina-Tampa Bay showdown immaterial (and, the result of that game may make this game inconsequential), count on the Saints to win one for the league.

Coin Flip: New Orleans

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Saints 23 Falcons 20

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 49.5) at New York Giants 1:00 pm - Obviously, by winning large last week over the Raiders, the Giants don’t care about the #1 draft pick and have a very good chance of winning this game with a healthy Jaxson Dart.

Cowboys can’t wait for the season to end. They already have vacation and golf plans lined up.

Coin Flip: New York Giants

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Giants 34 Cowboys 27

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5) 1:00 pm - The Browns whipped Pittsburgh last week, 13-6. Even though that game was in Cleveland, who’s to say that the Browns can’t win at Cincy? They lost to the Bengals in week one, 17-16, after all.

The Browns will keep this one close enough to cover or win outright.

Coin Flip: Cincinnati

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Browns 26 Bengals 24

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-10, 37) 1:00 pm - The huge spread indicates that the Packers are not playing most of their starters. Making of that what you will, there is little choice here and the oddsmakers have made that eminently clear.

Lay the points and pray J.J.McCarthy doesn’t throw three or four picks.

Coin Flip: Minnesota

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Vikings 24 Packers 6

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-10.5, 39) 1:00 pm - The Colts are a lame duck, even with Philip Rivers at QB. Houston has a chance at the AFC South crown with a Jacksonville loss, so they’ll be on their game from the get-go.

Houston has won eight in a row and they are unlikely to lose at home no matter the implications.

Coin Flip: Houston

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Texans 31 Colts 14

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5, 48) 1:00 pm - Jacksonville can wrap up the division title with a win, but the Titans would like to make them work for it. A little pressure on the Jags might inspire them to run up the score a bit.

Tennessee might like to think they can keep this one close, but the last time they played the Jaguars, they lost, 25-3, at home. Might be worse this time.

Coin Flip: Tennessee

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jaguars 34 Titans 7

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 38) 4:25 pm - Unless it’s a blizzard in Buffalo, the Bills should run away and hide from the Jets.

This game is only about playoff positioning, and the Bills could end up as the top wild card or the bottom one. Probably going to win this one for fun.

Coin Flip: New York Jets

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bills 28 Jets 10

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3, 50.5) 4:25 pm - The Bears already have the division title wrapped up, so they may not be as sharp as expected and may rest some of their key players.

The Lions can make up for earlier failures by playing hard and getting at least a little satisfaction with a win.

Coin Flip: Detroit

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Lions 27 Bears 21

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-13.5, 37.5) 4:25 pm - Good chance the Chargers won’t just lay down. They will play their starters. Denver already has secured the AFC West and a bye in the first week of the playoffs may still be on the line. Depending on the Bills and Texans, the Chargers could move up in the wild card race. Probably a closer game than most suspect.

Coin Flip: Los Angeles Chargers

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Broncos 31 Chargers 21

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5, 46.5) 4:25 pm - Please don’t wager on this game, even though the Rams are going to play their starters and probably win.

One never knows where the money goes in the NFL.

Coin Flip: Arizona

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Rams 30 Cardinals 13

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, 36.5) at Las Vegas Raiders 4:25 pm - The Raiders successfully wrapped up the #1 pick in the draft by losing to the Giants last week. There’s no reason for them to screw that up. They need a QB.

Coin Flip: Las Vegas

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Chiefs 20 Raiders 10

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-11.5, 46) 4:25 pm - Patriots should put the Dolphins away early and coast to a win, the only problem being a meaningless late score by Miami to cover the spread, but that seems unlikely.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Patriots 38 Dolphins 17

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 39) 4:25 pm - There’s almost no reason for the Eagles to even play this game, given they’ve already wrapped up the division and cannot move into the #1 conference spot and get a bye.

Would be nice to see the Commanders make a game of it. Philly may comply.

Coin Flip: Commanders

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Eagles 23 Commanders 21

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 40) at Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 pm - Pittsburgh can put to rest all the talk about the Ravens, a team which has underperformed all season. Getting points at home is a super gift. Happy New Year!

Coin Flip: Steelers

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Steelers 23 Ravens 20

Fearless Rick & Coin Flip CFP Semifinal Picks

Last Week’s Results: Rick: 11-5; Flip: 7-9
Cumulative Results: Rick: 99-118-8; Flip: 112-105-8

Thursday, January 8

CFP Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl
10 Miami Hurricanes (-3, 53) vs 6 Ole Miss Rebels 7:30 pm (ESPN) - Lane Kiffen, head coach of the Ole Miss Rebels for most of this season, didn’t think his team had what it might take to win a national championship, so he opted to take the head job at LSU and pursue his national title dreams with the Tigers down in the Bayou.

As unlikely as it seems, the Rebels turned the tables on Georgia in last week’s quarterfinal with a 39-34 win, avenging the October 18, 43-35, loss at Georgia in which the Bulldogs scored 17 fourth quarter points while holding the Rebels scoreless over the final fifteen minutes.

At 13-1, the Rebels are not to be discounted. Though they may be a bit looses defensively, the offense, led by QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Ken Lacy, can cause nightmares for defensive back and coordinators. Chambliss, were it not for Indiana’s Mendoza, might have won the Heisman Trophy. He threw for more than 300 yards in nine games this season, is slipplier than an eel, and has made throws this season that other humans can only imagine. Lacy’s had six 100-yard rushing performances, the highlight a 224-yard effort against Florida in November.

If Miami doesn’t keep to its tasks diligently for the full 60 minutes, they may find themselves on the short end of the final score because the Rebels can make big plays in short periods of time.

The Hurricanes are the most controversial team remaining, due to the tournament committee’s consistent ranking of them behind Notre Dame, whom the “Canes beat, 27-24 in the opening week of the season, until, at the very last moment, ranking them ahead of the Irish. That caused such an uproar that Notre Dame opted out of any bowl game, finishing their season with the loss to Miami and a one-point loss to Texas A&M their only blemishes.

Miami lost two ACC games, to Louisville, 24-21, and to SMU, 26-20 in overtime, which kept them out of the conference championship. They did their best to make an impression by hammering Pitt in the final week of the regular season, 38-7. Once they got into the CFP, they proved they belonged with a 10-3 win over Texas A&M in the first round before topping Ohio State, handily, 24-14, in the quarterfinals.

Carson Beck’s experience at quarterback and his two main receivers, Malachi Toney and Keelan Marion, will be difficult to defend. Miami may score early and often if they’re clicking.

Not to be forgotten is Miami’s vicious front defense, which consistently stuffs the run and often turns quarterbacks into pretzle shapes. There also won’t be many openings in the secondary.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hurricanes 34 Rebels 21

Friday, January 9

CFP Semifinal at the Peach Bowl
5 Oregon Ducks vs 1 Indiana Hoosiers (-3, 47.5) 7:30 pm (ESPN) - The Hoosiers had been ranked #2 until their 13-10 victory over Ohio State on December 6 in the Big Ten Championship game. Since that game they have been ranked #1 and are the only undefeated team remaining in the College Football Playoff.

Oregon’s only loss this season was to these same Hoosiers, a 30-20 defeat in Oregon back on October 11. They’ve done little wrong before or after that game and are riding an eight game winning streak, the latest being a 23-0 whitewash of Texas Tech in a CFP quarterfinal game on January 1 at the Orange Bowl in Miami. At 13-1, they are as good an opponent the Hoosiers will meet this season. Beating them twice will take some doing.

Both teams possess championship qualities, ranging from exceptional quarterbacking to outstanding, hard-nosed, nearly impenetrable defenses. Oregon’s Dante Moore passed for more than 200 yards in 10 of 14 games this season. He is accurate, seldom makes poor decisions and can use his legs to get first downs, which he’s done often this season.

The Ducks did have a couple of close encounters this season, including a double-overtime, 30-24 victory at Penn State and a narrow, 18-16 win at Iowa on November 8. Since then, in five wins, their average margin of victory is 19.2 points. The win over Texas Tech last week was their best defensive effort of the season, showing that they are ready to handle any challenge.

Making comparisons to the 14-0 Hoosiers is difficult at best, given they are statistically superior to the remaining teams in the playoffs and all others that came before them. Quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza has been consistently excellent and displayed an ability to rise to the occasion as he did in tight games against Iowa, Penn State and in the Big Ten Championship game over Ohio State.

Defensively, there may not be a better unit than the Hoosiers for the past 20 years. Only two teams scored more than 15 points - Oregon (20) and Penn State (24). The Indiana defense has held nine opponents to 10 or fewer points, including each of the last four. Their absolute 38-3 dominance of Alabama in the quarterfinal game at the Rose Bowl last week was stunning. They are as ready as the Ducks and this game - in deference to the Miami-Ole Miss game on Thursday - may be the actual national championship because the winner here will be a heavy favorite on Monday, January 19 in Miami.

Oregon is a worthy team, but Indiana has beaten them once already this season and seem to be just a little bit better. Be prepared for a low-scoring affair with emphasis on field position, special teams, and place-kicking advantage.

Coin Flip: Oregon

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hoosiers 24 Ducks 17

Fearless Rick & Coin Flip Bowl Week 3 & CFP Picks

Wednesday, December 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic
10 Miami vs 2 Ohio State (-9.5, 41) 7:30 pm (ESPN) - While Ohio State took a bye, Miami prevailed over Texas A&M, 7-3, in the opening round of the CFP, proving that they belonged over Notre Dame, which they topped in week one, 27-24. Other than two midseason mishaps against Louisville (24-21) and at SMU, 26-20, the Hurricanes are a threat to unseat the reigning national champs. Giving Miami 9.5 points could prove to be a grave error.

Since their loss to SMU, the Hurricanes demolished their final four opponents, including polishing off Pitt, 38-7, to close out the regular season. Carson Beck is playing like a pro. The defense has been suffocating.

Ohio State went unbeaten through what has to be considered a light schedule until they dropped the ball in the Big Ten championship, 13-10, to Indiana. In what figures to be a tight, defensive struggle, give Mimia QB Beck the nod over freshman Julian Sayin.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hurricanes 21 Buckeyes 14

Thursday, January 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl
5 Oregon (-2.5, 51.5) vs 4 Texas Tech 12:00 pm (ESPN) - Probably the toughest game to pick because both teams are very solid (one loss each) and have talented athletes on both sides of the ball.

Besides their 30-20 loss to Indiana, Oregon had two close calls, a 30-24 double OT win at Penn State, and an 18-16 win at home over Iowa. Other than that, they’ve pretty much hammered the opposition, but one has to question how they gave up 34 points to James Madison last week.

Outside of their lone loss, 26-20, at Arizona State, the Red Raiders have simply destroyed everybody. They’ve won every other game by 22 points or more, usually much more. In 12 wins, no team has scored more than 20 points. They are a legitimate contender for the national championship.

Coin Flip: Texas Tech

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Red Raiders 34 Ducks 20

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl
9 Alabama vs 1 Indiana (-7, 47.5) 4:00 pm (ESPN) - The Crimson Tide faced fierce competition this season and will have a go at the Hoosiers, but, in the end Indiana has the Heisman Trophy winner and possibly the tightest defense in the country.

If Indiana gets going early, the defense may make Alabama’s offense miserable. Blowout potential.

Coin Flip: Alabama

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Hoosiers 31 Crimson Tide 17

CFP Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl
6 Ole Miss vs 3 Georgia (-6.5, 55.5) 8:00 pm (ESPN) - It’s difficult to take a stand against the Bulldogs and head coach Kirby Smart. They have big game, championship experience. Beyond that, they already whipped the Rebels once, in a comeback, 43-35 victory.

The Bulldogs made amends for their lone loss to Alabama, 24-21, by turning back the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship, 28-7. Georgia’s defense will turn up the heat and turn away the Rebels. Ole Miss has too many miscues on defense and they’re without Lane Kiffin, replaced by defensive coordinator, Pete Golding. Tough spot. Won’t be easy, but the Bulldogs come out as top dogs.

Coin Flip: Ole Miss

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bulldogs 34 Rebels 24

Friday, January 2

Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs Texas State (-14, 57) 1:00 pm (ESPN) - C’mon man, Rice was 5-7 and got into this because all the 6-6 teams were used up. They don’t belong, but, on the other hand, how about the 6-6 Texas State Bobcats, which lost five straight mid-season before closing out with three wins to become bowl eligible.

Well, of those five losses, two were in overtime, one was by one point, another by three points, and the fifth loss was to James Madison, which made it to the CFP. The last three wins were by 17, 23, and 27 points. Bobcats eat Owls, no?

Coin Flip: Rice

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bobcats 38 Owls 14

Liberty Bowl
Navy (-7, 55) vs Cincinnati 4:30 pm (ESPN) - One has to believe, even without looking at stats, comparisons of offense and defense, that if there’s one team that will have the proper discipline to be ready for this game, it’s the Navy Midshipmen.

Cincinnati, after getting to 7-1 and being ranked for a week, simply fell apart, losing their last four straight.. Expect Navy to run their option sets all day long.

Coin Flip: Navy

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Midshipmen 40 Bearcats 21

Holiday Bowl
17 Arizona (-3, 52.5) vs SMU 8:00 pm (FOX) - In case you’re not too hung over, FOX wants you to stay up for this blooper. SMU finished 6-2 in the ACC and were 8-4 overall. They should hang in defensively.

The Wildcats have the #1 basketball team in the country, but finished 5th in the Big 12 (6-3), ended up ranked #17 having won their last five straight, finishing 9-3. They’re a top flight team with plenty of upside looking for a 10th win, which means a lot to the players and coaches and is great for recruiting and portal moves.

Coin Flip: Arizona

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Wildcats 35 Mustangs 24

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest vs Mississippi State (-3, 54) 8:00 pm (ESPN) - Or, you can let the Bulldogs and Demon Deacons put you to sleep.

This actually may be a one-sided affair. The Dekes managed to go 8-4 and 4-4 in the ACC, whereas the Bulldogs were 1-7 in the SEC and just 5-7 overall. Yet, the SEC team is favored. Doubt they’ll win.

Coin Flip: Wake Forest

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Demon Deacons 30 Bulldogs 20