Trade deals and/or tariffs don't have to be long, drawn out affairs, but the desires of the parties involved complicate them to a degree of complexity that makes them more difficult than they need to be. Trump laid out his proposals on April 2nd. Nearly two months later, almost nothing - other than the framework for China, particularly - has been resolved. Trump arbitrarily moved the deadline up 90 days and 90 days is coming soon. It's not enough time for U.S. trade negotiators to get up to speed and finalize agreements with more than 100 countries. They'd be doing more than one a day - an unrealistic expectation.
Trump, knowingly or not, failed to account for the needs of the counterparties, the exporters to the U.S. He'll get some of what he wants, but the real deals will come later because everybody needs more time.
When it comes to things like war, or conflict in general. Trump's approach has been different. He's been a little more patient, though, honestly, ending the Russia-Ukraine war or the situation in the Middle East were not going to be easy ones. The parties involved (and notably, the U.S. is only a tangential party to any of these situations) have their own objectives and lots of history backing up their positions. The negotiating teams have barely scratched the surface.
In terms of the Ukraine-Russia situation, three things are obvious:
Therein are the main reasons the war will drag on until Putin and Russia prevails. Trump's position - from a negotiating perspective - is a poor one. He not only has to deal with the two opposing forces - Russia and Ukraine - but with elements of the EU which need the war to continue, neocons inside and out of his administration, who have a vested interest in continuing the war, the military-industrial complex, and various senators (especially Lindsay Graham) who don't want the conflict to end.
Trump will eventually walk away after having exhausted most of his options. The U.S. needs to detach as much as possible from Ukraine (that's my opinion) and let the chips fall where they may. It's not going to be easy or quick.
Getting down a more personal level, your life is a constant negotiation. You negotiate everything, whether you know it or not. As a kid, you tried many tactics to get out of going to school, doing your homework, mowing the lawn. Some worked. Most didn't, probably because your parents and teachers were better negotiators than you.
Even though going to school and doing your homework were perceived to be mandatory, they weren't, but the ramifications of not doing as expected - bad grades, stupidity, punishment, isolation - were more than enough to keep most of us in line, thankfully.
As adults, we negotiate with spouses, bosses, co-workers, clients, banks, government, and, sometimes, our positions are solid and we can get what we want. Good spouses get time off with friends, good workers get raises, good marketers have happy clients, good credit scores get loans, good bookkeeping and accountants keep the government happy. It's not hard if the effort is made.
In the end, negotiating for anything is a matter of understanding the desires of the other side of the argument (information), time (when to negotiate and how long before you can get to an agreement), and power (dealing from a position of strength or weakness).
If, for instance, you want a raise, how do you go about it? Do you stumble into the boss's office and say, "you're not paying me enough. I want a raise?" Of course not. Anybody can get a raise. Anybody. it's all a matter of understanding your position, the position of the person giving the raise, and your negotiating style.
A slacker, somebody who's not even doing his or her job, can get a raise if one has a time element in mind. Negotiating a raise somewhere down the road, based on a mutual understanding of objectives to be attained by that time, like doing a better job, working longer, smarter, harder, can be negotiated. Any under-performer can go to the boss and propose something along these lines:
"I know I haven't been the best employee, but, if I do X and work Y, by Z time, will you give me a raise of XXX dollars per hour, week, month?"
That gets the ball rolling, putting into the mind of the decision-maker that you're sincere, have put some thought into your proposal, and are willing to make the effort. The rest is just working out the details.
People who are good at their jobs probably don't need to do much in terms of negotiating for raises. The principle can see the value of keeping such an employee and will likely - if the business is on sound financial footing - be open to paying more to keep that person on board.
On the subject of information, or, knowing the other side's position, the old joke comes to mind:
A bold fellow asks a pretty lady if she'll have sex with him for a million dollars.
She shyly, responds, "Yes, I suppose I would."
The fellow then asks, "Would you have sex with me for five bucks?"
Irritated, the lady replies, "No, what kind of a woman do you think I am?"
The chap answers, "We've already have determined that. Now we're just haggling over the price."
If you're interested in making your life better and getting what you want most of the time, it's advisable to do a little reading on the topic of negotiating. There are loads of books and articles on the subject, but Donald Trump's "The Art of the Deal", which is one of the selections on this month's books page, and Herb Cohen's classic, You Can Negotiate Anything, already in the idleguy.com library, are recommended.
Lately, with Donald Trump as President, there's a good likelihood that you've been hearing the word "negotiation" quite a bit. Often, it's being characterized by weasel words like "talks", "discussions", and "deals". When it comes to high level, world class negotiations like long-term trade deals with China, Europe, or the rest of the world, the time element (Trump, Wall Street, congress want these deals done quickly; most countries want them phased in over long periods) is superseded by real world issues.
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