Update: 5/18/24, by Fearless Rick, 11:20 am ET

Preakness Analysis, Betting Preferences

It's Saturday, May 18, 2024. I'm Fearless Rick and this is my analysis and betting projection for the Preakness.

Nine horses are entered for the running of the second leg of the Triple Crown at Pimlico Race course, in Baltimore, Maryland. The weather forecast is for scattered showers, so that could affect the outcome of all races at Pimlico today. Post time for the Grade 1 Preakness will be around 7:00 pm ET.

Right now the turf is rated good and there's no rating on the dirt track, but it's likely to be somewhere between good to muddy to sloppy to wet-fast. It's likely to change over the course of the day.

Favored in the field is Kentucky derby winner, Mystic Dan, ridden once again by Brian Hernandez, saddled by trainer Kenny McPeek. He's the #5 horse.

With the scratch of #4, Muth, who came down with a fever of 103 according to trainer Bob Baffert, Mystic Dan's chances are improved.

Let's get right to the contenders and throwout in this race. First, I'm simply going to toss the #1, Mugatu, and #2, Uncle Heavy. You can use them on the bottom of exacta, trifecta and superfecta wheels, but they're not a good fit here unless something crazy happens.

That leaves us with six horses. The main contenders, in my view, are the #3 Catching Freedom, with Flavian Prat aboard, #5 Mystic Dan, and #8 Tuscan Gold.

The speed in the race is likely to come from the outside post, #9, Imagination, saddled by Bob Baffert with Frankie Dettori aboard. If the track is sloppy, Imagination could get a clear lead and have a shot at wiring the field. Keep an eye on track conditions. You should be able to get a good read on how the track is playing from watching races earlier in the day.

The other two horses are #6, Seize the Grey and #7, Just Steel, both trained by D. Wayne Lucas. With Joel Rosario on Just Steel, he'll probably be up close to the pace, but he's been beaten by both Mystic Dan and Catching Freedom in the past, so if playing exotics, use him underneath.

Right now, a lot of handicappers are talking up #8 Tuscan Gold. As I mentioned in an earlier post on Idleguy.com, Tuscan Gold had a three-wide trip around two turns in the Louisiana Derby, running two lengths behind Catching Freedom.

Which of these horses like off tracks? Well, #2, Uncle Heavy, won from off the pace in the Withers, on a muddy track, so, with Iran Ortiz aboard, he could surprise.

#3 Catching Freedom ran a soild third to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star in the slop at the Fairgrounds.

#5 Mystic Dan won the Southwest at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths in the mud.

#6 Seize the Grey won at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs early in his career on off tracks.

#7 Just Steel was a well beaten 2nd and 3rd in two tries on off tracks.

#8 Tuscan Gold and #9 Imagination have never run on anything but fast tracks, so, if anything, an off surface actually might enhance Mystic Dan's chances even more.

Here's how I'm playing this race.

I'm putting $5 to win, $10 to place on Mystic Dan #5, $15

I'm playing a $2 exacta wheel with 5 and 8 on top with 2, 3, 7 and 9 underneath, $16

Turn it around for a $1 wheel 2,3,7,9 over 5 and 8, $8

$3 exacta box 5-8, $6

$10 place on #8 Tuscan Gold, $10

Total bet $55.

Good luck everybody.

You can find this video and transcript on idleguy.com, page 7 of the April May edition. Link below in the description box on Youtube.

Update: 5/16/24, by Fearless Rick, 10:12 am ET

Preakness Entires, Comments

Here's the lineup for Saturday's Preakness, second leg of the Triple Crown, with commentary.

Mystic Dan, winner of the Kentucky Derby, will face less than half the competition he ran against in the Derby (20). Morning line odds have him the second choice after Muth, the Bob Baffert-trained colt which was not eligible for the Kentucky Derby because of the state's ban against Baffert. Muth is a serious horse that could easily find the winner's circle in Baltimore. Just in case, Baffert Has entered #9 Imagination, who was last seen being beaten a neck by Stronghold back on April 6 in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. The additional time off makes him a dangerous foe. He'll break from the outermost position, #9, which shouldn't diminish his chances as he has enough tactical speed to be as close or far away from the pace as he likes heading into the first turn. Speaking of tactical, he'll be ridden by Frankie Detorri, who is one of the most tactical riders in the history of the sport. He will no doubt get a good trip and have every shot of winning it all, if the horse is up to it.

Given that the Pimlico race course is noted for favoring speed and the slightly shorter distance than the Derby (1 3/16 vs. 1 1/4), a logical front-runner is #7 Just Steel, who was on or close to the lead in Kentucky, but fell apart at the top of the stretch. That race might have him set up for a better effort, even with the short rest period of just two weeks.

It's also worth noting that trainer D. Wayne Lucas - who has saddled six different Preakness winners - has another entry in #6, Seize the Grey. Even though they're uncoupled, D. Wayne calls the shots and will probably instruct Joel Rosario to send Just Steel, setting up a late run from Seize the Grey, who is likely to stalk the pace from a length or two behind. He won the Pat Day mile at Churchill on Derby day (May 4), against a so-so field, but stayed on in the stretch. He looks to be just a touch short against this formidable field.

Only three horses from the Derby are entered for the Preakness: #3 Catching Freedom, who ran fourth; winner, #5 Mystic Dan, and; #7 Just Steel, who faded badly in the stretch to finish well back.

Catching Freedom might be want to be a bit closer to the pace in this affair. If so, he's another with a legitimate shot at winning the Preakness.

Chad Brown's entry of #8 Tuscan Gold ran third to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby back on March 23 at the Fair Grounds. He had a three-wide trip throughout the race but was beaten only a couple of lengths. He, along with Just Steel, figure to be the main speed in the race, but, with the extra rest he's had, is a possibility to take this race wire-to-wire. He'll be ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, who rode Sierra Leone to a second place finish in the Derby, but has decided to skip the Preakness

The two inside horse, #1 Mugatu and #2 Uncle Heavy, don't really fit into the mix well and will be long shots. Mugatu finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 at Keeneland. Irad Ortiz gets the mount on Uncle Heavy. Like the horse to his inside, he also finished fifth in his last race, the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, won by Resilience, back on April 6. Both should be carrying odds of 15-1 or higher come post time, which is 7:01 pm ET.

I'll be updating and upload a video as race day approaches.

1. Mugatu, Jeff Engler, Joe Bravo, 20-1
2. Uncle Heavy, Butch Reid Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 20-1
3. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6-1
4. Muth, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 8-5
5. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 5-2
6. Seize the Grey, D. Wayne Lukas, Jaime Torres, 15-1
7. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Joel Rosario, 15-1
8. Tuscan Gold, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 8-1
9. Imagination, Bob Baffert, Frankie Dettori, 6-1

Update: 5/12/24, by Fearless Rick, 7:40 am ET

Gaffalione Fined $2,500 for Derby Ride

Sho-nuff, jockey Tyler Gaffalione has been fined $2,500 for his ride aboard Sierra Leone in the Kentucky Derby. Jason Frakes at the Louisville Courier Journal has all the details.

Update: 5/8/24, by Fearless Rick, 11:45 am ET

Derby Final, Triple Crown Notes

Congratulations to Mystic Dan and his connections, jockey Brian Hernandez and trainer Kenny McPeek for their victory not only in the Kentucky Derby, but Friday's Kentucky Oaks as well, with Thorpedo Anna ($10.80 win).

I offer no excuses, despite how close the finish was, I simply didn't see Mystic Dan as a serious contender. Plenty of other handicappers had him in the mix. There does happens to be a bit of intrigue, however, concerning the neck-and-neck drive to the finish by Sierra Leone and Forever Young. The stewards are calling in jockey Tyler Gaffalione, rider of Sierra Leone, for what they're calling a "film review" on Thursday, May 9. In a series of photos like the one below, he appears to be at least trying to impede the progress of Forever Young, if that's even possible.

In any case, if Gaffalione wasn't trying to impede Forever Young and his horse had run in a straight line, rather than bearing in on Forever Young for the final 50-60 yards of the race, the Japanese steed might have won. After all, he was undefeated coming into the race.

The stewards may take disciplinary action against Gaffalione after they meet on Thursday. We shall see.

Moving on, in the post leading up to the Derby, I said this: "Putting cold cash down on Sierra Leone is probably not a bad idea." I had thought to just bet Sierra Leone cares the board, in my systematic 1-2-3 style, which, in its barest form is $2 win, $4 place, $6 show, and multiples in the same ratio. So, had I gone with $10 win, $20 place, $30 show - a $60 bet - it would have returned $65.40 to place and $69.60 to show, a total of $135.00, minus my $60 wager, for a net of $70.

I decided to swing for the fences (and by the way, how right was I about Fierceness?) since I didn't like the favorite. Right idea, wrong horses. Sorry.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Hindsight is so 20/20.

Here's a rundown of the payouts and winnings from the 150th Kentucky Derby, one of the most exciting finishes of all time.

Now it's on to the Preakness, Saturday, May 18. Updates to follow right on this page.

Update: 5/4/24, by Fearless Rick, 11:15 am ET

Derby Day Note

Encino, #9, has been scratched from the Derby, which draws in #21, Epic Ride, with Adam Beschizza aboard, who will start from the outside (#20) post. The scratch moves all runners 10-20 inside one post postion, which really doesn't change much.

The track is listed as Muddy, turf, Good. After two races, the surface is fair, almost as a fast track, but may be tiring for horses on or near the lead. As the day progresses, the track should be drying out, and by post time for the Derby, may be listed as fast. No rain is forecast, while overcast. Should some sun appear, it would dry out the track faster, a distinct possibilty.

All that adds up to no changes in handicapping, sticking with the picks below.

Update: 5/3/24, by Fearless Rick

Derby Field Analysis, Picks

Apologies for the poor video quality in parts. Also, the favorite that somehow got garbled at the beginning of the feed is #17 Fierceness, just so you know which horse I DON'T like.

Here's some commentary on each entiry for the running of the 150th Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Scroll down for the suggested $50 bet.

1. Dornoch, Luis Saez jockey, Danny Gargan trainer.
Lost his most recent race to probable favorite, Sierra Leone in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Prior to that, Dornoch was other first or second in all of his starts, including wins in the G2 Remsen and G2 Fountain of Youth. He either had a bad day in the BlueGrass or he's just not up to this level of competition. Possible upset, but at long odds, like 30-1 or higher.

2. Sierra Leone, Tyler Gaffalione, Chad Brown
Owners paid up for this horse, $2.3 million at the Fasig-Tipton auction in 2022 and, so far, he's been worth the money, earning $918,000 in four starts, winning all but the Remsen, to #1 Dornoch, back in December. He's matured into a solid stallion, and is going to be either the favorite or second choice. His running style, from off the pace, suits the Derby to a T. Works have been solid and he appears to be fit and ready.

3. Mystic Dan, Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenneth McPeek
Other than his maiden win, Mystic Dan won the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park over a muddy track. After that, he was third, by 6 1/2 to Muth, who is banned from the Derby because his trainer is badboy Bob Baffert. This horse has literally almost no shot at winning this race, though a muddy track would help his chances.

4. Catching Freedom, Flavian Prat, Brad Cox
One of three from the Brad Cox barn, this son of Constitution has a late running style that may put him in the mix down the stretch. Won the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds back on March 23. and has earned over $800,000 in five starts. He was third to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star on a sloppy track back in February. No slouch, great connections, an April 27 5 furlong work at 59.1. Possible.

5. Catalytic, Jose Ortiz, Saffie Joseph Jr.
Main claim to fame is his second to #17 Fierceness in the Florida Derby, by 13 lengths. Now, Fierceness may have "freaked" that day or he's just a better horse under the proper circumstances, meaning he gets the lead uncontested. Problem for Catalytic is the 90 Beyer earned in that effort. Not nearly competitive against this caliber of field.

6. Just Steel, Keith Asmussen, D. Wayne Lukas
Probably the most experienced horse in the field, 10 lifetime starts. Had his best effort in the Arkansas Derby, running second by 2 lengths to Muth, earring a 97 Beyer. Interesting, as he's a son of Justify, so maybe all that running will pay off. He's stayed healthy, which is more than can be said for a lot of horses.

7. Honor Marie, Ben Curtis, D. Whitman Beckworth
If you like long shots, here's your boy. Won the Ky Juvenile at Churchill Downs in late November (not the Breeders' Cup) and ran second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby by a closing length. Well-bred, cost only $40k, but has a solid running style and turned in a bullet work April 25, 59.1 for 5 furlongs. At 50-1, 70-1, why not?

8. Just a Touch, Florent Geroux, Brad Cox
Another live entry from the Cox barn, Just a Touch had the lead at the top of the stretch in the BlueGrass, but was run down by Sierra Leone. This guy has sustained speed and will be a pace participant, so he can't be counted out.

9. Encino, Axel Concepcion, Brad Cox
Yep, another one from Brad Cox, but this one looks a little short. His main danger is to #17 Fierceness, because they both want the lead. Encino could cause real problems on the front end, but is not likely to last.

10. T O Pasword, Kazushi Kimura, Daisuke Takayanagi
From Japan, winner of his only two races, would be a miracle to win the Derby with such a short resume.

11. Forever Young, Tyusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi
Some day, a horse from Japan is going to win the Derby and this one checks all the boxes. 5-for-5 lifetime, over $2 million in earnings, he's the top earner in the field. Won the UAE Derby (G2) and is impressive. It would be a mistake to leave him off exotic tickets because he could win this. One caveat is that many believe the long trip from Japan to the MidEast to America will take a toll. Probably depends on the horse and the care of his handlers.

12. Track Phantom, Joel Rosario, Steven Asmussen
Despite a top speed figure of 97 earned running fourth in the Louisiana Derby, this son of Quality Road is going to be challenging for the lead, especially with aggressive rider, Rosario aboard. He may not have the stamina to stay a whole 1 1/4 miles, but he will ensure an honest, if not breakneck pace.

13. West Saratoga, Jesus Castanon, Larry Demerritte
50-1 morning line and probably will be 80-1 by post time. Top speed figure of 89 puts him lengths behind most of the field. One of a few true throw-outs in the race.

14. Endlessly, Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy
Tough post, especially with a top Beyer of 93. Has won on turf and Tapeta, so dirt will be a new experience for this colt. Nope.

15. Domestic Product, Iran Ortiz Jr., Chad Brown
Stablemate to Sierra Leone won the Tampa Derby (G3) with an 84 Beyer. Unless he improves dramatically, he'll be watching most of the field run away from him. Beaten by the aforementioned Sierra Leone by 16 lengths in the Remsen with no excuses.

16. Grand Mo the First, Emisael Jaramillo, Victor Barbosa Jr.
Finished third in the Zuma Beach, Swale, Tampa Derby, and Florida Derby, so how is he supposed to win the Kentucky Derby. Top Beyer of 88 says he won't.

17. Fierceness, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher
Pletcher is legendary for winning big races, but he faces some challenges with this horse, who may actually be the favorite or second choice. Winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by six lengths and the Florida Derby by 13, his speed is already legendary, but he has other speed inside him in #8, Just a Touch, and #12, Track Phenom, who should keep him honest. There will be no opportunity to relax on the lead at any point. In a 1 1/4 race, sustaining a high speed on the lead is nearly impossible. Fierceness could win by six lengths or get ground into submission at the top of the stretch. Touch choice at very low odds. Prefer others. If he wins, he wins. If not, a lot of people will have wasted money on a short-priced favorite.

18. Stronghold, Antonio Fresu, Philip D'Amato
Plenty to like about this son of Ghostzapper, with one of the Wet coast's leading rider/trainer combinations and either first of second in all of his six starts, including a gutsy win over Imagination in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 6. Stronghold earned a solid 98 Beyer in that victory, one lower than his best, a 99 in the Los Alamos Futurity in December '23. Unlike some of the other runners in here, this horse has a stalking style, preferring to sit just off the pace and spring into action at the top of the stretch. He'll have to overcome a tough post, but he's a contender with over $800,000 in career winnings. His 46.3 bullet work on April 20 at Santa Anita attests to his tactical speed.

19. Resilience, Junior Alvarado, William Mott
In he hands of Hall of Rame trainer Mott, Resilience boasts one of the highest Beyers in the field, with a 104 winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on April 6. Rider by John Velazquez in that victory, Resilience gets Mott's regular rider, Junior Alvarado, which is a plus. He didn't beat much in that win, topping #20 Society Man, by 2 1/4 lengths. May be peaking at the right time, but has to overcome a tough outside draw.

20. Society Man, Lanfranco Dettori, Danny Gargan
Second entry from the Gargan barn (#1 Dornoch) got a 102 Beyer in his second place finish in the Gotham. The figures may be suspect because this guys' top figure was 85 prior to this, but, 3-year-olds do often improve speed ratings dramatically, so who knows? Very outside draw with a come-from-behind running style makes this one a tough one to bet.

So, how are we going to play this?

Putting cold cash down on Sierra Leone is probably not a bad idea. He could very easily win the race with a big turn of foot leaving the far turn and at fair odds of around 4-1. His #2 post position is ideal as jockey Tyler Gaffalione can pick any location and be on the rail, saving ground which is likely to be key. He's done everything right so far, the connections are solid, though the price may be a little bit short. He's no world-beater, but he's already proven better than five different runners in the field, so bet him flat across the board.

The other main contenders are #4 Catching Freedom, who is really rounding into form and also benefits from an inside draw. Honor Marie, #7 is out of Honor Code, a son of legendary A.P Indy, so he actually is one of the better bred horses and is going to go off at huge odds.

After being overtaken by Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, I don't see #8 Just a Touch being competitive here, though he's a solid horse. Sorry. Maybe in the Travers, later this summer.

People are going to question why I'm not using Fierceness. Well, first, he's 2-1, so that's pretty short odds. Second, there's other speed in the race and others who are going to be right off the pace, just a length or two back. Finally, the Kentucky Derby's only been won in wire-to-wire fashion 22 of 149 times, or, just under 15% of the time. Based on that, you'd need odds of 7-1 or better for a square deal on a front-runner. As they say, if he beats me, he beats me.

#11 Forever Young has proven himself overseas and cannot be left out. #18 Stronghold and #19 Resilience are going to be long odds and both may be useful in exotics.

So, we've got the following: 2, 4, 7, 11, 18, 19. A six horse $1 exacta box is $30. If Sierra Leone wins, it's going to be a little short, but probably will be more than $30 unless it's with the 4 or 11. All the others are long shots, so if Sierra Leone runs third, it could be a huge payoff. You might want to put a few bucks win and place on any of these at odds of 10-1 or more, which could be all of them except Sierra Leone.

Looking at the live odds on Friday afternoon, here's how our horses stack up:

#2 9-2
#4 8-1
#7 13-1 (somewhat surprisingly low)
#11 7-1
#18 32-1
#19 26-1

BTW: all exactas with #2 on top return more than $30, some much more. All other combinations will be in the hundreds.

So, here are the bets for Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

#2, $4 win = $4
#11, $4 win = $4
#18, $2 win, $4 show = $6
#19, $2 win, $4 show = $6

$1 exacta box, 2,4,7,11,18,19 = $30

Total bet = $50

Enjoy the day of racing at Churchill Downs. The rest of the program is impressive, with seven graded stakes races on the card.

Good luck, everybody!