Divisional Results: Rick: 2-2; Flip: 1-3
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Sunday, January 26
While 11 QBs have won a playoff games in their rookie season, only four have won two - Daniels, Joe Flacco, Brock Purdy, and Mark Sanchez - and none have won three, making this week's showdown with the Eagles in the NFC Championship possibly one for the record books.
Washington's chances are good. Despite being a six-point underdog, the last time they played the Eagles, they won, 36-33, though the game was in Washington, not Philadelphia, as Sunday's game will be.
Earlier in the year, in week 11, the Eagles took care of their division rivals, winning, 26-18, in Philly. The Commanders would lose the next week, to Dallas, 34-26, for their third straight loss, dropping them to 7-5 and in danger of missing out on the playoffs.
After a 42-19 blowout win over Tennessee and a 20-19 squeaker at New Orleans, the Commanders got to 10-5 with that win over the Eagles, beat Atlanta and Dallas to close out the season and then shocked the world, not by winning at Tampa Bay, 23-20 in the wild card round (though that was a pretty thrilling), but by going into Detroit and derailing the nighty Lions and their 15-2 record, stunning them, 45-31.
From the second quarter forward, the Commanders dominated, securing a lead they would not relinquish when Terry McLaurin took a Daniels toss 58 yards to pay dirt and a 17-14 lead. The half ended with Washington up 31-21, and they went on to seal the deal with two more TDs in the fourth quarter.
From Philadelphia's perspective, defending Jayden Daniels is their primary objective. He can, and has, damaged defenses league-wide with both his arm and his feet. He's shown to be cool under pressure and now, after a full NFL season and two playoff victories, he's experienced enough that thinking of him as a rookie might be a mistake.
Offensively, the Eagles have their own bag of tricks, starting with the adaptability of Jalen Hurts and the rushing skills of Saquan Barkley, who has turned Philly's offense into a monster. Always a threat to break off a huge run, Barkley forces opposing defenses to commit more men closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up passing and scrambling lanes for Hurts to hit receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, or dump off to tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia's offense is capable of long, extended drives that wears down defenses, though the same can be said about the Commanders, as became evident as the season wore on and Washington wore defenses down and out.
Statistically, the Eagles hold a sizable edge on defense, allowing, by far, the fewest yards per game during the regular season, at 278.4. They were also second overall in points allowed, at 17.8, behind San Diego, at 17.7. Washington is quite a way down the list, allowing 327.9 and 23.0 points per game. However, as has been proven time and again (where are San Diego, Detroit, Baltimore now?), stats mean little when it comes to playoff football.
The pressure is clearly on the Eagles in this game. The hometown fans have been known to be less-than-forgiving, but they will be cheering their Eagles loudly. However, after last year's first-round flameout, a 32-9 drubbing at Tampa Bay, fan enthusiasm may fade fast if the Eagles aren't taking care of business or suffer turnovers of make mental mistakes resulting in costly penalties.
Washington has nothing to lose at this juncture, but there's always in-game pressure affecting coaching decisions as well as player activity. Dan Quinn is not going to wilt. He's been around the league long enough to keep his cool and Kingsbury will help make the right moves on offense.
For Nick Sirianni, this may prove to be a make or break situation for him. In his fourth season with the Eagles, he's looking to make his second Super Bowl after losing to Kansas City in 2022-23, 38-35, but he'll have to find a way to cool off the hottest team in the NFL right now and their probable rookie of the year quarterback to do so.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Commanders 30 Eagles 27
While the Bills generally have Kansas City's number during the regular season, beating them this season, 30-21, in week 11, making that four straight, dating back to 2021, the post-season continues to haunt them. For long-suffering Bills' fans, McDermott, Allen and crew offer the best hope to wipe away the memories of losing four straight Super Bowls from 1991 to 1994. They've yet to make it back to the big game, but this season appears to be their best opportunity.
Standing in their way are the Chiefs, with all-world QB Patrick Mahomes and Mr. Taylor Swift, aka Travis Kelce, an obvious future member of the Hall of Fame and possibly the best tight end ever to wear an NFL uniform.
Not to be outdone is the Kansas City defense, as formidable a force as exists in the league come playoff time. Under the tutelage of Steve Spagnuolo, Kansas City's blend of blitzes and zone coverages confuse and confound NFL offenses year in, year out, and, while this season may not have been their best, they showed up time and again in close games. The Chiefs won 11 games that were decided by one score, and six that were decided by three points or fewer or went into overtime.
Outside of the week 18, 38-0, loss to Denver, in which most starters sat out, only one team scored 30 points against the Kansas City defense, and that was, you guessed it, Buffalo.
So, even though more than a few pundits thought last week's Baltimore-Buffalo contest was a Super Bowl in disguise, this one is for more marbles. Kansas City is looking to become the first team to win three Super Bowls. The Steelers didn't do it. Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and the 49ers didn't, and even Tom Brady and his seven Super Bowl rings never won three straight.
To get there, the Chiefs will have to get past their main nemesis of recent memory, the Bills, who are hell-bent on preventing that.
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 26 Chiefs 24
Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional
Wild Card Weekend Results: Rick: 2-4; Flip: 5-1
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Saturday, January 18
4:30 pm Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 41.5) (ABC, ESPN) - The Chiefs have had an additional week of rest and some starters, including QB Patrick Mahomes, have had more, skipping the Week 18 loss to Denver.
As far as playoff experience is concerned, the Chiefs have it, from their talented defense to offensive stars Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Houston shocked more than a few fans with their utter dominance over San Diego, which boasted the best defense in the league on a points allowed basis, averaging 17.7, just a hair better than the Eagles, at 17.8. The Texans ravaged them in a 32-12 onslaught.
Kansas City ranked fourth in points allowed during the regular season, giving up just 19.2 on average, which was essential to their winning the AFC West, securing the #1 seed and first round bye as their offense failed to score more than 30 points in any game this season. They only did it twice, a 30-24 overtime win against Tampa Bay (November 4), and in a 30-27 nail-biter at Carolina. The Chiefs won 15 games, 10 of them by seven or fewer points.
Houston's defense stacks up pretty well, allowing 21.8 points per outing, but their seven losses worry some supporters. There's reason to dismiss a few of those games, especially Week 17's complete lay down against Baltimore (31-2), after they had already wrapped up the AFC South, and the shocking, 32-27 loss to Tennessee in Week 12, where the defense just fell apart as Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley ran roughshod and C.J. Stroud threw a pair of picks.
Otherwise, outside of a Week 2, 34-7, loss at Minnesota, the Texans fared well against top-tier teams. They beat Buffalo, 23-20, in Week 5, dropped a 24-22 decision at Green Bay Week 7, narrowly lost to Detroit, 26-23, in Week 10, and fell at Kansas City, 27-19, Week 16, less than a month ago.
It's probably going out on a limb a little to pick against the Chiefs, but after seeing how the Texans mauled the Chargers last week, they seem to have clamped down defensively (4 sacks, 4 interceptions) while C.J. Stroud seemed to have ample time in the pocket, Nico Collins caught seven balls for 122 yards and a score, and Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards. Texans can spring the upset.
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Texans 26 Chiefs 20
The game turned on a late Tampa Bay turnover deep in its own end which resulted in Washington's turning a 17-13 deficit into a 20-13 fourth quarter lead. The Buccaneers tied it with 4:41 remaining, but Zane Gonzalez banked in a field goal off the right upright as time expired for the 23-20 victory.
Washington is an up-and-coming team worthy of accolades for turning around from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 this season, plus a playoff win, and Daniels is certain to garner offensive rookie of the year honors.
However, they face the league's #1 offense in the Lions, coming off a bye after shattering the hopes and dreams of the Vikings with a 31-9 pounding in Week 18 that decided the NFC North division and the #1 seed. If there's any team that appears ready to grab the golden ring and win the Super Bowl, the Lions are the NFC's best hope.
The Commanders are no slouches offensively, ranked 5th in scoring at 28.5 points per game. Detroit was #1 (33.2). Defensively, the Lions are 7th, allowing 20.1 points per game, while the Commanders are well down the list, giving up an average of 23.0. These slight statistical advantages will be expanded when the two go head-to-head.
Washington is good, but the Lions are the NFC's cream of the crop. Detroit won eight games by 10 or more points this season, a list that includes Green Bay, Dallas, Seattle, and Minnesota. Their two losses were a 20-16 setback to Tampa Bay in Week 2, and a 48-42 shootout against Buffalo in Week 15.
Coin Flip: Detroit
Fearless Rick's Pick: Lions 34 Commanders 17
3:00 pm Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 43.5) (NBC, Peacock) - The Eagles really has trouble getting their offense going in last week's 22-10 win over Green Bay. The Packers played tight defense against Saquon Barkley's rushes and held the Eagles to under 100 yards passing in the first half. The difference, by the end of the second quarter was mostly a fumble by Green Bay on the opening kickoff that led to the only touchdown in the first two quarters and a 10-0 Philly lead.
Tight End Dallas Goedert stiff-armed his way into the end zone to make it 16-3 nearing the end of the third quarter, but the Packers struck pay dirt on a Josh Jacobs one-yard plunge to open the fourth quarter.
Packer QB Jordan Love's three interceptions proved too costly as Philly kicker Jake Elliott finished the job with a pair of fourth quarter field goals.
As far as the Rams are concerned, their home-away-from-home trouncing of Minnesota Monday night proved they're not to be easily dismissed. The Rams have experience in QB Matthew Stafford and a wealth of talent in wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Running back Karen Williams is a battering ram. They match up favorably with the Eagles' Jalen Hurts, wideouts DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Barkley may prove a difference-maker in what appears will be a closely-contested affair.
While the Eagles' defense is top-shelf, the Rams have proved to be disruptive and turnover hunters. Philadelphia plowed through the regular season 14-3, easily taking the NFC East. The Rams took the NFC West with a 10-7 mark, working though early injuries that had them at 1-4, winning five straight before a meaningless 30-25 loss to Seattle in Week 18.
These two met in Week 12, with the Eagles pounding the Rams, 37-20, as Barkley rushed for a franchise record 255 yards. Expect the Rams to tighten up their run defense this time. That game was in Los Angeles, so it stands to reason the Eagles would be nearly a touchdown favorite. They'll likely win, but the Rams could prevail or at least keep it a one-score game.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Eagles 24 Rams 20
Getting down to knuckle time, the Bills will be up against the best rushing offense in the NFL. Baltimore will have to defend against a multi-pronged attack that includes dual-threat Allen, running back James Cook, and a cadre of wide receivers that seems to come in waves. During the regular season, eight different receivers - including TE Dawson Knox - were a single-game high yardage. Allen knows how to spread it around and his guys can make plays.
Defensively, it's pretty even. Baltimore allowed 21.2 points per game through the regular season. The Bills were close behind at 21.6.
Baltimore had the best run-stopping defense in the league, allowing just 80.1 yards per game, though part of that is because teams were often down a score or two or three and had to resort to a pure passing attack. Still, they were #1 by far. The next closest was Minnesota, allowing 93.4 rush yards per game. A lot of good that did them.
Buffalo was about mid-range defending against the run, allowing 115.5 yards per game. Expect that number to be around 210-230 by the time Jackson and battering ram, Derrick Henry, is done with them. Baltimore rushed for a league-high 187.6 yards per game. The Eagles were second-best at 179.6. Nobody was close after those two.
Baltimore will undoubtably move the ball and score. They were third in scoring, at 30.5 points per game. Buffalo was second (30.9). Both trailed #1 Detroit (33.2).
The Bills will score as well and probably outscore the Ravens. Home field is a huge plus as Buffalo crowds are loud and rabid. Don't dismiss the kicking game. Future Hall of Fame kicker Justin Tucker may have passed his "use by" date. He was 22-30 this season and just 11-for-19 40 yards or longer.
Kyle Bass was better, hitting 24 of 29 field goals and 4 of 4 from 50 yards or more.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 34 Ravens 27
Fearless Rick & Coin Flip NFL Playoff Picks - Wild Card Weekend
Week 18 Results:
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Saturday, January 11
4:30 pm Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 43) at Houston Texans (CBS) - Houston exploded onto the playoff scene last season, but were a little disappointing in 2024, the offense only scoring 21.9 points per game, though wideout Nico Collins missed five games in October and November. With him healthy, the Texans are a better offense.
Texas QB C.J. Stroud didn't have the best of years. His second as a pro finished with 20 TDs and 12 picks, whereas in his rookie season he threw 23 with only five interceptions. More complex defenses - which the Chargers will employ - seems to cause him trouble. Still, the Texans did capture the AFC South, probably the weakest division in the league, giving them home field advantage over the wild card Chargers, who actually finished with a better record than Houston (11-6 vs. 10-7).
Los Angeles had the #1 defense in the league in terms of points allowed, averaging 17.7. Houston was middle of the pack, allowing 21.9. The LA offense scored 23.6 points per outing, on average. Justin Herbert had a solid season, throwing for 23 TDs with only three interceptions. The offense can get the job done, but the defense will put the clamps on Houston, leading to a fairly sizable winning margin.
Coin Flip: Houston
Fearless Rick's Pick: Chargers 30 Texans 13
Offensively, it's kind of a mismatch, with the Ravens offense behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry averaging 30.5 points per game, third, behind Buffalo (30.9) and Detroit (33.2). Pittsburgh put up 22.4 points per game on average, giving Baltimore a huge offensive advantage.
Given that these two already played twice this season, this becomes the rubber match. Pittsburgh won the first meeting at home, 18-16, but the Ravens responded with a 34-17 win on their turf just three weeks ago.
Pittsburgh punched above their weight most of the season in order to reach the playoffs, but it appears the Ravens have their number.
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 34 Steelers 14
1:00 pm Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 47) (CBS) - Likely to be cold and possibly windy in Orchard Park, which suits both of these clubs just fine, they're used to playing under inclement conditions.
Buffalo's offense is top shelf, while Denver also has its moments and the Buffalo defense is likely to be accommodating to Bo Nix and his troops.
Denver's defense will do its best - and they are pretty good - to slow down Josh Allen, James Cook, et. al., so the result may be closer than some - especially Bills' fans - expect.
Kicking may be difficult and stressful, so special teams will need to be on good behavior and may be the deciding factor.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bills 24 Broncos 17
The Eagles won't have an easy time handling Green Bay's offense, which can be dynamic. Expect both sides to most long scoring drives. Red zone offense and defense will be key to winning or losing.
There's little separating these two teams. Philadelphia was seventh overall in points scored, averaging 27.2. Green Bay was next, at 27.1.
Defensively, the Eagles allowed 17.8 points per game, second, right behind the league-leading Chargers, 17.7. Green Bay allowed 19.9 per game, good for sixth league-wide. Home field will certainly help the Eagles, who were 8-1 during the regular season.
Eagles' QB Jalen Hurts is listed as questionable as of Thursday, but has made progress in the concussion protocol, though still not cleared. He should start, though he may not be 100%, given he sat out weeks 17 and 18. The Packers will give their best and could easily upend the Eagles. Getting four points in what figures to be a close game is a good take.
Coin Flip: Philadelphia
Fearless Rick's Pick: Eagles 27 Packers 25
Washington has played every game as if it were their last, so the team as a whole should be emotionally prepared. Tampa Bay holds a playoff experience advantage, having made the post-season every year since 2019, last year with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady at QB, shocking the Eagles in the first round, 32-9 before losing at Detroit, 31-23, in the divisional round.
The Buccaneers will not go down without a fight, although they were only 5-4 at home, while the Commanders went 5-3 as road warriors.
Both squads leave much to be desired on defense. Tampa Bay allowed 22.6 points per game; Washington, 23.0. Offensively, they are also close. The Bucs were fourth, scoring at a 29.5 points-per-game clip, while the Commanders were right behind (5th), at 28.5.
Looks like a shoot-out which could go either way. Pick a side and pray. Taking the OVER might be a more sane choice.
Coin Flip: Washington
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buccaneers 42 Commanders 37
8:00 pm Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 47.5) at Los Angeles Rams (ESPN/ABC) - This game may be moved to Arizona, depending on the situation concerning the fires in the Los Angles area. Otherwise, it may be the most intriguing game of the weekend.
The Vikings chased the Lions for most of the season after losing to them, 31-29, in Week 7, and then dropping the ball at these very same Rams, 30-20 in Week 8. They won nine straight, only to get pounded in the decisive Week 18 return meeting at Detroit, 31-9. The team has to be a bit deflated after that effort.
The Rams are a serious team, winners of five straight down the stretch to capture the NFC West and thus, home field advantage. prior to the meaningless Week 18 loss to Seattle, the Rams allowed just 24 points total in three wins over the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals. Just before that they outscored Buffalo, 44-42, so they are capable on both sides of the ball.
Stats may not be relevant here, as the Rams had a slew of injuries early in the season, which kept their scoring (and wins) down. Fully healthy, they're one of the most potent offenses in the league. They finished the regular season mid-pack, scoring 21.6 ppg, though they can, and have, improved upon that. The Vikings were ninth, 25.4 ppg.
Minnesota's defense was 5th, allowing 19.5 ppg, while the Rams were again well down the list, giving up 22.7. Both teams are capable, but the Rams appear just a touch better at this juncture. A late field goal could decide it.
Coin Flip: Los Angeles Rams
Fearless Rick's Pick: Rams 23 Vikings 21
Fearless Rick & Coin Flip Week 18 NFL Picks
Week 17 Results:
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Saturday, January 4
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-20, 41.5), 4:30 pm (ESPN/ABC) - The Ravens should definitely win this game, the only question is by how much. Cleveland surely doesn't want to be embarrassed, but they're totally outclassed by Baltimore, one of the favorites to win the AFC and head to the Super Bowl.
Probably going to see many unfamiliar faces playing for the Browns. They have nothing to gain other than to evaluate non-starters. Cleveland beat the Ravens, in Cleveland, 29-24, Week 8, but much has changed, especially for the Browns. They've lost their last five and scored just 16 points total their last three. Bottom line: Ravens win and clinch the AFC North and #3 seed, by a ton.
Coin Flip: Cleveland
Fearless Rick's Pick: Ravens 31 Browns 6
Cincinnati needs a win and losses by Denver and Miami to get to 9-8 and into the playoffs. This game will be hard fought on both sides, but the Steelers will get the best of the Bengals, again.
Coin Flip: Pittsburgh
Fearless Rick's Pick: Steelers 30 Bengals 24
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 47.5), 1:00 pm (CBS) - Meaningful game for Atlanta, given that a win and a Buccaneers' loss to New Orleans gives them the NFC South crown. They cannot get a wild card. Carolina QB Bryce has yet to win a road game and the Panthers' defense is thin.
Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. has to play well for the Falcons to win, and he should in his third pro start. Atlanta already won at Carolina, Week 6, 38-20. This should be about the same result.
Coin Flip: Atlanta
Fearless Rick's Pick: Falcons 31 Panthers 17
At 7-9, the Cowboys are done and there may not be any motivation. Last week, Philly whipped them, 41-7. The Cowboys beat Washington, 34-26, in Week 12, but that's ancient history.
Coin Flip: Dallas
Fearless Rick's Pick: Commanders 28 Cowboys 14
The Packers can move up to the #6 seed if Washington loses to Dallas, so there may be some scoreboard-watching on the Green Bay sideline. If Washington wins, they have nothing to gain. The Bears have nothing to lose, and will put up a good fight. Packers win, but don't cover.
Coin Flip: Green Bay
Fearless Rick's Pick: Packers 23 Bears 20
Jacksonville won the first meeting, 37-34, but they had Trevor Lawrence at QB. Big difference with Mac Jones taking snaps.
Coin Flip: Jacksonville
Fearless Rick's Pick: Colts 35 Jaguars 23
Buffalo is likely to rest many starters, giving the Patriots an edge. Josh Allen will play maybe two series at most and give way to A rusty Mitch Trubisky. Expect Buffalo to run the ball excessively.
Coin Flip: New England
Fearless Rick's Pick: Patriots 23 Bills 20
The Giants proved they're more interested in playing football than getting the top draft pick by beating the Colts last week, improving to 3-13. They'd love to put one on the Eagles here and have an opportunity to do so.
Coin Flip: New York Giants
Fearless Rick's Pick: Giants 20 Eagles 13
New Orleans will have Spencer Rattler at QB. He's yet to lodge a victory in three starts, losing last week to the Raiders, 25-10. New Orleans is 2-5 on the road, but those wins were Week 2 at Dallas and Week 14 at the Giants.
Coin Flip: Tampa Bay
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buccaneers 42 Saints 10
Tennessee is 1-6 at home this season, but already beat the Texans back in Week 12, 32-27, so they may sense an opportunity to score again against a division rival, even though it would hurt their draft chances. Houston will play some starters, but not for the entire game. Advantage, Titans.
Coin Flip: Tennessee
Fearless Rick's Pick: Titans 26 Texans 20
The Broncos make the playoffs as the #7 seed with a win. With Bo Nix playing against KC backups, there's a good chance that will happen, and Denver will likely have the pedal to the metal throughout.
Coin Flip: Kansas City
Fearless Rick's Pick: Broncos 30 Chiefs 13
Seattle could win this game and unfortunately miss the playoffs with a 10-7 record. They were eliminated in Week 17 when the Rams won last Saturday, 13-9, over Arizona. With the Rams already in, they can hold onto the #3 seed with a win or Tampa Bay loss, but drop to #4 if Tampa Bay wins and they lose.
Being #3 or #4 doesn't matter much, so the Rams may be better off resting most of their starters.
Coin Flip: Seattle
Fearless Rick's Pick: Seahawks 24 Rams 14
They are also notoriously bad in cold weather games, and it's predicted to be freezing cold at the Meadowlands Sunday night. This also could be Aaron Rodgers last NFL game, and he'd probably like to go out win a win. Things don't stack up well for the Dolphins here.
Coin Flip: Miami
Fearless Rick's Pick: Jets 21 Dolphins 14
The Raiders, after losing 10 straight, are now on a two game winning streak, topping Jacksonville and New Orleans in weeks 16 and 17. Can Aiden O'Connell make it three straight? Maybe.
Coin Flip: Las Vegas
Fearless Rick's Pick: Raiders 23 Chargers 22
The Cardinals at home rate an edge. They beat the 49ers, 24-23, in Week 5.
Coin Flip: Arizona
Fearless Rick's Pick: Cardinals 24 49ers 16
Detroit has held a slim lead over the Vikings since Week 8, when Minnesota lost to the Rams, 30-20, but the Vikings have won nine straight since then and got back into a tie with the Lions when the Bills upended Detroit, 48-42, in Week 15.
Week 7, the Lions prevailed over the Vikings, 31-29, and now can make it two straight over their biggest division rival. Minnesota has been relentless, however, and will be all out to avenge that October 20 loss.
Coin Flip: Minnesota
Fearless Rick's Pick: Vikings 33 Lions 30
Cumulative Playoff Results: Rick: 4-6; Flip 6-4
Cumulative Regular Season Final Results:
Rick: 132-128-10; Flip: 125-137-10
3:00 pm Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 47.5) (FOX) - Under head coach Dan Quinn, and with guidance from offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are on the cusp of making NFL history.
6:30 pm Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 43.5) (CBS) - Josh Allen, quarterback of the Buffalo Bills and likely league MVP, hasn't had any success against Kansas City in the post-season. He's 0-3, along with coach Sean McDermott, in playoff games against the Chiefs, losing, 38-24 in 2020-21, 42-36 in OT in 2021-22, 27-24 in 2023-24, two of those (20-21, and 23-24) conference championships.
Cumulative Regular Season Final Results:
Rick: 132-128-10; Flip: 125-137-10
8:00 pm Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-10, 56) (FOX) - Washington and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels managed to slip by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, playing a flawless game with no turnovers, though Tampa did manage to stop them on third and fourth down multiple times.
Sunday, January 19
6:30 pm Baltimore Ravens (-1, 51.5) at Buffalo Bills (CBS, Paramount) - There's an added bonus to the final divisional game of the weekend. The league MVP will likely emerge from this contest. Buffalo's Josh Allen and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson have been running neck-and-neck through the latter part of the season. Though Jackson has a stronger statistical case, the player with the best performance in this game will likely decide it.
Rick: 7-9; Flip: 5-11
Cumulative Regular Season Final:
Rick: 132-128-10; Flip: 125-137-10
8:00 pm Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 43.5) (Prime Video) - As much as Baltimore's defense has been maligned, they finished the regular season 9th-best overall, allowing 21.2 points per game, right behind the Steelers at #8, who gave up 20.4.
Sunday, January 12
4:30 pm Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 48) (FOX) - Starters from both teams got some rest in Week 18, so they should be well-prepared. Green Bay's defense will have their hands full with Philly's dual-purpose offense, Shaquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts may find some gaping holes and the Packer secondary will be run ragged by the duo of A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith.
8:00 pm Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 50.5) (NBC) - Jayden Daniels got the Commanders into the playoffs, now it's time to see if the rookie - and likely rookie offensive player of the year - can put a playoff win on his resume.
Monday, January 13
Rick: 6-10; Flip: 10-6
Cumulative: Rick: 125-121-10; Flip: 120-126-10
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 48) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:00 pm (ESPN/ABC) - Pittsburgh has already clinched a wild card. They would need Baltimore to lose to Cleveland and beat the Bengals - which they did, December 1, 44-38.
Sunday, January 5
Washington Commanders (-6, 43.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 1:00 (FOX) - Washington is already in the playoffs as a wild card. A win puts them in the #6 spot.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10, 41.5), 1:00 pm (FOX) - Chicago has lost to the Packers, 11 straight times, all under Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur. They're not likely to win this game and have little to play for other than pride.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 43.5), 1:00 pm (FOX) - Completely meaningless game other than draft positioning, which works in Jacksonville's favor, though it's not a big deal. Neither team has any defense of which to speak, but the Colts have a better offense, especially with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38.5) at New England Patriots, 1:00 pm (CBS) - Buffalo is locked into the #2 seed regardless of the outcome of this game. New England gave them fits the time time they played, just two weeks ago, a 24-21 win by the Bills.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 37.5), 1:00 pm (CBS) - The Eagles have a lock on the #2 playoff position with a win; a loss drops them to #3. Philly also will be without Jalen Hurts and #2 QB, Kenny Pickett, meaning the start will either be Ian Book or Tanner McKee. Saquon Barkley is also going to sit.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5, 44), 1:00 pm (FOX) - With a win, Tampa Bay locks up the NFC South and is in the playoffs. They blasted Carolina last week, 48-14, and topped the Saints, 51-27, in Week 6. They've won five of their last six. Baker Mayfield is on fire.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2, 36.5), 1:00 pm (CBS) - Houston was a disgrace last week, losing 31-2 to Baltimore in front of their hometown fans. At least this week they won't be booed too loudly by Titans' fans. The Texans are locked in at the #4 seed as champs of the AFC South.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10, 41), 4:25 pm (CBS) - Lots of Kansas City starters will sit this one out, as they've already clinched the #1 seed in the AFC, and that includes QB Patrick Mahomes. Carson Wence will lead the offense.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 38.5) at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 pm (FOX) - Jimmy Garoppolo (rust) starts in place of Matthew Stafford as the Rams clinched the NFC West last week.
Miami Dolphins (-1, 38.5) at New York Jets, 4:25 pm (FOX) - With a playoff spot a possibility (Miami needs to win and Denver must lose to the Chiefs), the Dolphins turn to Tyler Huntley to run the offense, as Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to be a go.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 42) at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25 pm (CBS) - If the Steelers lose to Cincy on Saturday, the Chargers could move up to the #5 seed with a win. If Pittsburgh wins, they're locked in at #6. Either way, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league and the Chargers already beat them, 22-10, in Week 1.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 42.5), 4:25 pm (FOX) - Games don't get any less meaningful than this one. Both teams are out of the playoff picture and are just grinding it out. There's some behind-the-scenes noise about SF QB Brock Purdy and his future, but that's about it.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 56), 8:20 pm (NBC) - This one is for the #1 seed in the NFC and a bye in the first playoff round.
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Fearless Rick & Coin Flip CFP National Championship Picks
CFP Semifinals
Monday, January 20:
7:00 pm Ohio State Buckeyes (-8, 45) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (ESPN) - Finally, this is the way it should be. The two best defenses in the country (defense wins championships, you know)head-to-head after wending their ways through a rugged regular season and a testy playoff scenario.
The 14-1 Fighting Irish and the 13-2 Buckeyes meet to decide the national championship Monday night in Atlanta.
Both teams had to qualify for the initial 12-team playoff format and win three games to reach the apex of college football in the 2024-25 season. While the Buckeyes appeared to cruise past Tennessee and thump Oregon, Texas gave them more of a tussle, at least for three quarters. Quinshon Judkins' second rushing touchdown of the game gave Ohio State a 21-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter, but the Longhorns got to within yards of the goal line before a critical Quinn Ewers fumble resulted in a 83-yard run to the opposite end of the field by linebacker Jack Sawyer to seal the deal for the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame's path through the playoffs was similar in that they handled Indiana with relative ease in a 27-17 win and put the clamps down on an undermanned Georgia squad, 23-10 in the quarterfinals.
The semifinal game against Penn State would prove to be one of the best games of the season, both defenses resolute, both offenses striving for yardage, the Irish eventually hooking up for a 54-yard touchdown pass from Riley Leonard to Jaden Greathouse to tie the score late in the fourth and win it, 27-24, on Mitch Jeter's 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left on the clock.
Statistically speaking, there's little separating the two teams on defense. Ohio State led the country in points allowed, giving up a mere 12.2 per game, while the Irish were number two, allowing opponents just 14.3.
On offense, the popular delusion is that the Buckeyes are superior to the Irish, but Notre Dame is sixth in scoring nationwide, putting up an average of 37.0 points per game. Ohio State is 12th, averaging a healthy 35.8. The Buckeyes threw for 1000 more yards than Notre Dame, but the Irish outgunned Ohio State by just more than 700 yards through the regular season and playoffs.
The fact that the teams vying for the national championship were the #7 and 8 seeds is a tribute to the wisdom of the fledgling playoff format. Neither team played a conference championship game nor received a bye, and maybe those are flaws, but there's little doubt that these two belong here.
The line that was initially set at -9.5 in favor of Ohio State has swung lower, and it could even get to -7 by game time, which would be closer to reality rather than the perceived favoritism awarded Ohio State. The Buckeyes showed they were human and that their offense could be corralled to some degree in the Texas game. Notre Dame rallied twice from behind in their semifinal win over the Nittany Lions, displaying grit, nerve, determination, and solid coaching. The Fighting Irish are not going to roll over. They've won plenty of championships throughout a storied history, as have the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame wins in a defensive squeaker.
Coin Flip: Notre Dame
Fearless Rick's Pick: Fighting Irish 23 Buckeyes 20
Fearless Rick & Coin Flip CFP Semifinals Picks
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Jan. 2-4 Bowls Results: Rick: 1-3; Flip: 1-3
Thursday, January 9
Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Defensively both are sound, if not exceptional. In yards allowed per game, Penn State is ranked 6th (288.8), Notre Dame, 8th (295.4). Notre Dame is second in points allowed, 13.6 (Ohio State is first, 12.1). Penn State ranks 7th, at 15.8.
Neither team can be called an offensive juggernaut, but they are more than adequate. Penn State scores at a rate of 33.7 per game, while the Irish average is a better, at 37.7, fourth-highest nationally. It might be arguable that Penn State played a tougher schedule, but, after seeing what Notre Dame did to Georgia last week - a dominant defensive effort and a 23-10 win - it appears Notre Dame's defense, and possibly the entire team, is peaking at the right time.
Penn State was dominant in both of their playoff wins, first blasting SMU, 38-10 in a very one-sided affair, then crushing Boise State in the quarterfinals, 31-14 while holding Ashton Jeanty to a mere 104 yards rushing on 30 carries, which, considering his ability, was quite the feat.
The outcome is likely to turn on a play or two, a missed field goal, turnovers or special teams, which makes this game one so difficult to pick a side.
From an historical perspective, Penn State's history is one of often coming up just a bit short with only two national titles, while Notre Dame has won eight national championships according to poll and playoff records since 1936.
The game should be hard-fought and low-scoring throughout, with Notre Dame's defense eventually stoning the Nittany Lions late.
Coin Flip: Notre Dame
Fearless Rick's Pick: Fighting Irish 20 Nittany Lions 16
Cotton Bowl, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Defensively, even though the Longhorns are eminently capable, allowing just 14.5 points per game (4th), the Buckeyes are #1, giving opponents only 12.1 points per outing. And, if the Buckeyes come out firing as they have the past two games, Texas will be fighting an uphill battle all night.
Texas scores, on average, 34.3 points per game, which compares favorably with Ohio State's 36.4 (10th nationally). While both teams have potent offenses, Ohio State has been devastatingly effective in its two playoff wins, trashing Tennessee, 42-17, in the opening round, and then getting cold revenge on the team that beat them by a point back in October and who won the Big Ten championship, Oregon, with a resounding, 41-21 victory.
The score of that semifinal win is even misleading, given that the Ducks didn't fin the end zone until the very last play of the second quarter, after the Buckeyes had already put 34 points on the board.
Historically, Ohio State rates a fairly good edge, as the line suggests. In the bowl and playoff era since 1936, the Buckeyes have claimed the national championship six times, Texas, four, their last coming in 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns past USC.
Ohio State is a powerhouse this year and has a long legacy. They've captured the title twice in the 21st century, in 2002 and 2014. They're looking for the trifecta and it's doubtful the Longhorns can prevent them from getting to the championship game.
Coin Flip: Ohio State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Buckeyes 34 Longhorns 21
Fearless Rick & Coin Flip College Bowl Picks, January 2-4
ALL TIMES EASTERN
Dec. 30 Bowls; CFP Quarterfinals
Thursday, January 2
Gator Bowl
Surely, Ole Miss deserves favoritism, but the Blue Devils weren't that bad, finishing 9-3 with a 5-3 mark in the ACC. Their worst showing was a 53-31 loss at Miami, but that was when the Hurricanes were 9-0 and looking like the ACC champion. Still, Duke's pass defense must be pretty horrid.
The Rebels were supposed to have a potent, explosive offense, but it often didn't show up. In their eight SEC games, they only tallied 28 or more once. And, they're weird. They beat Georgia, but lost to Kentucky.
Gimme the points.
Coin Flip: Duke
Fearless Rick's Pick: Rebels 28 Blue Devils 23
First Responder Bowl
The Mean Green of North Texas showed true grit, whipping Temple, 24-17, in their season finale to become bowl eligible. Those five losses, BTW, were to Memphis, Tulane, Army, UTSA, and East Carolina, all bowl teams. The other was to Texas Tech (they got splattered, 66-21).
The Bobcats went 7-5 on the season and 5-3 in conference (Sun Belt). Sometimes they play defense, like in their early-season 49-10 win over UTSA. But sometimes not, witness the 52-44 loss to Georgia State.
Should be plenty of scoring in this game.
Coin Flip: Texas State
Fearless Rick's Pick: Bobcats 40 Mean Green 31
Even though the Hokies were 6-6, they were quite competitive, even in defeat, losing to Rutgers by three, Miami by four, Syracuse, 38-31, Clemson by 10, and Duke by a field goal. So, The Goldies almost upset Penn State and the Hokies almost upset Miami. Should be about even.
Coin Flip: Virginia Tech
Fearless Rick's Pick: Hokies 24 Golden Gophers 23
Bahamas Bowl
Liberty was 8-3 (5-3 in Conference USA) and their worst loss was 31-21 to Jacksonville State. The Flames can score well and they do play defense.
Coin Flip: Buffalo
Fearless Rick's Pick: Flames 38 Bulls 26
Results: Rick: 2-0; Flip: 2-0
Cumulative: Rick: 112-138; Flip: 115-135
Cumulative: Rick: 111-141; Flip: 114-138
7:30 pm 7 Notre Dame (-1.5, 45) vs. 6 Penn State (ESPN) - This should be quite the grind. Both teams like to move the football methodically on offense, mixing run and pass, but mainly, running the ball is key to both.
Friday, January 10
8 Ohio State (-5.5, 53) vs. 5 Texas (ESPN) - It's quite possible that the Longhorns will find themselves overmatched in this semifinal contest. After defeating Clemson handily in their opening round game, 38-24, they had to go to double overtime to put away a pesky, determined Arizona State squad, 39-31. The Longhorn defense was worn down considerably in that game.
Results: Rick: 2-5; Flip: 2-5
Cumulative: Rick: 110-138; Flip: 113-135
8:00 pm Duke vs. 14 Ole Miss (-17, 50) (ESPN) - It just goes against everything seen and heard this bowl season to give any team 17 points.
Friday, January 3
4:00 pm North Texas vs. Texas State (-14, 61.5) (ESPN) - Seriously, is anybody going to this game?
Duke's Mayo Bowl Bowl
7:30 pm Minnesota (-8.5, 42.5) vs. Virginia Tech (ESPN) - Minnesota was lights out mid-season, winning four straight, but tailed off at the end of the season, losing to Rutgers (26-19) and Penn State (26-25) before closing out with a win over rival Wisconsin, 24-7. The Gophers proved to be a very solid football team.
Saturday, January 4
11:00 am Buffalo (-3, 51) vs. Liberty (ESPN) - Buffalo went 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the MAC, falling just short of making the championship game. They had some bad beats, like 38-0 against Missouri, 47-3, to UConn, and 47-16 against Ohio, the conference champs. They score in bunches, don't play much defense.