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Afterthoughts on the 151st Kentucky Derby

May 5, 2025 - Fearless Rick

Even though the Churchill Downs track was one big mud puddle, after watching a few races (1-3), I decided to execute my strategy, betting $6 to show on races 4-11 and hope to have enough cash remaining to make my big bet on the Derby (Race 12).

It went well enough. In races 4, 5, and 6, my picks all finished third. In race 7, Think Big won going away, which was fine with me, even though I only had him to show. After four races, I was up $17.26 (Churchill pays out to the penny, rather than to the dime, like most other tracks).

After that, I got skunked. None of my picks the next four races hit the board, so, I was down $6.74, which was OK, with the Derby next. I bet the seven-horse exacta box for $42, bet a $1 exacta box on Journalism and Publisher (13), but didn't bet Publisher across the board because I thought he really had no chance (and he didn't, finishing far back), and put down $2 to win and $4 to place on six horses, leaving off the favorite, Journalism, though he was part of my exacta box. My total bet for the Derby was $80.

It was a good thing I had Journalism as part of that overkill exacta, because as it turned out, basically, the two favorites ran 1-2, with Sovereignty (18) winning the Derby by 1 1/2 lengths over Journalism (8). My payoffs were $17.96 on my win bet and $15 on the place bet. I had the $1 exacta, which paid $24.16.

Thus, my $80 bet returned $57.12. It was the second worst outcome for me. Worse would have been Journalism first and Sovereignty second. So, totaling it all up, my loss on the Derby bet was $22.88. Added to the $6.74 I was down prior to the Derby, the entire day cost me the grand smacking total of $29.62, which, when you consider that amount would basically cover parking at Churchill Downs (The track was charging $90 for infield attendees. Insanity.), I was happy to watch the races on my computer and TV (NBC), drink as many mint juleps as I liked and spend the day with my usual Triple Crown partner, Miss M____. We had a great time, drank juleps and champagne, had cheese and crackers and I whipped up some bacon, egg, and cheese biscuits (putting McDonald's to shame, I might add).

At the end of the day, losing just under $30 was a worthwhile expense. Sure winning is fun, but I can now brag that I had the winner and the exacta (along with thousands of other bettors).

Next, it's on to the Preakness on May 17, which I expect both Sovereignty and Journalism to skip. We might see them next at the Belmont. I'll have a report when the entries are announced (probably Saturday, May 10) and post picks most likely on Thursday, May 15.

Until then, may all your bets be winners.

The Kentucky Derby is a Grade I Thoroughbred horse race for 3-year-old horses, held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky on the first Saturday in May.

It is the first leg, or jewel, in the Triple Crown, which includes the Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont Stakes. The Preakness is run at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, Maryland, two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, and the Belmont Stkaes three weeks after that, which is almost always the first Saturday in June.

Normally, the Belmont Stakes is held at Belmont Rack Track in Elmont, New York, but this year it's being held at Saratoga, in Saratoga, New York.

Fearless Rick's Kentucky Derby Day Picks

OK, here's the deal. There are Nine (9) Stakes races on the Churchill downs card for Saturday, May 3, culminating in the 151st running of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

I've handicapped all of the the stakes races, and I'm providing just one pick for each race. My strategy is not to make a killing, but have fun, enjoy the races and the ladies with the big hats and be money ahead by the time the Derby goes off around 7:00 pm ET.

My Derby picks will be more extensive, with suggested Win, Place, Show, and exotic wagers.

Now, In the other eight races leading up to the Derby, I'm picking one horse in each race and betting that horse to SHOW, or betting Win, Place, and Show (across the board) in a ratio of 2-4-6, $2 to win, $4 to place, and $6 to show, or for you heavy hitters, $20, $40, $60. By putting more money on the place and show bets, it ensures that if your horse doesn't win, you can break even at worse if he runs second or third. I've had days using this method that none of my horses won, but the payoffs for place and show were good enough to turn a profit. It's a money management concept. So, best of luck to all, here are my picks.

Fearless Rick's Derby Analysis

As usual, with such a big field, there had to be horses eliminated, and I junked a bunch, including:

• #2, Neoequose, a speedball who will tire.
• #4, Rodriguez, SCRATCHED
• #5, American Promise, another speedster who can't get the distance
• #10, Grande, SCRATCHED
• #11, Flying Mohawk, distance is an issue
• #12, East Avenue, needs the lead and probably won't get it.
• #13, Publisher, big closer, but still a maiden (CAVEAT: betting this horse lightly to WPS just in case) Irad Ortiz rides
• #14, Tiztastic, No class
• #15, Render Judgment, just plain short
• #16, Coal Battle, Beyers are low
• #17, Sandman, o-for-3 at Churchill Downs
• #19, Chunk of Gold, no class, bad post, seconditis (3 2nds in 4 starts)
• #20, Owen Almighty, speedy, but horrible post
• #21, Baeza, like him, but tough post, Journalism ran right by him in SA Derby

So, I'm left with seven horses:

• #1 Citizen Bull, Baffert entry, speed of the speed
• #3 Final Gambit, questionable, never been on dirt (AW and Turf in 4 starts), but looks to run all day
• #6 Admire Daytona, from Japan, high quality
• #7 Luxor Cafe, Japan, 4 straight wins, cannot dismiss
• #8 Journalism, best Beyers (99, 104, 108) but small fields, exceptional breeding (Curlin, Uncle Mo)
• #9 Burnam Square, stout closer, strong works, throw out Florida Derby, wide trip, fits here
• #18 Sovereignty, Godolphin stable, Bill Mott barn always dangerous, should be running late.

I also can't see betting Journalism, who is likely to be the favorite, flat. I'd prefer to bet all the others to Win and Place.

Laying out $2 to win and $4 to place on six horses is $12 to win and $24 to place, so, $36, OK.

I'm also putting $2 WPS on the maiden, #13 Publisher, for a couple of reasons. 1. I am a publisher (hunch bet), 2. Irad Ortiz is riding, 3. A maiden winning the Derby would be a big story. 4. He matches up with Journalism, ya know, Journalism-Publisher, so I'll do a $1 exacta box there, so my bets on #13 will total $8

My total bet is going to cost $86. Hoping for a big payday, but, even if I don't hit it, as always, it will be worth the money. I figure on getting $40 at least on the exacta, $20 on a win bet and another $20 to place, so, if I get back $80 of my $86, I'll be happy to have just given out good advice. Others may be better at throwing their money at the race. If Journalism wins, well, half the universe will lay claim to having picked him, the favorite. There's no fun in that.

Anybody wishing to play some exotics like a trifecta or superfecta, using my handicapping logic, be my guest.

If the track is anything other than good or fast, all bets are off. I hate sloppy or muddy tracks. If it's total slop, I'll side with the speedy Citizen Bull, who is quick and has the rail.

Last word, I'm leaning toward #9 Burnam Square and the two Japanese horses, #6 and #7 and may put a few extra bucks on them win and place, but I can't rule the others out.

Here are the picks for races 4-11. The Derby is race #12.

Fearless Rick asked Bing's Co-Pilot AI about the Kentucky Derby. Here is the response:

Based on the overall form and expert consensus from recent analyses, my top pick for the Derby is **Journalism**. Here's why:

1. Strong Recent Form: Journalism has built a perfect record, securing four consecutive wins, including a convincing performance in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, which has painted him as the standout performer of the prep season. His consistent track record makes him the favorite, holding odds around 3-1.

2. Favorable Post Position: Drawing the No. 8 gate - a slot known historically for yielding winners in the Kentucky Derby - adds another feather to his cap. This position can offer a tactical advantage in a race where early positioning is key.

3. Comparison with Other Contenders: While horses like Sovereignty (at 5-1) and Sandman (at 6-1) show promise and bring unique qualities to the mix (with Sovereignty as a strong closer and Sandman offering late-run speed), some experts have voiced caution with Sandman due to concerns over potentially unsustainable pace scenarios. Meanwhile, opportunities for longshot surprises like Final Gambit (at 30-1) exist for risk-tolerant bettors, but the clear, consistent performance of Journalism stands out for someone looking to lean into the heavy favorite.

In short, I'd back Journalism for the win this Saturday. His combination of form, post position, and tactical speed make him a compelling choice. If you're looking for value or hedging options, keeping an eye on Sovereignty or even targeting a sleeper bet might add some spice to your betting card.

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