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Super Bowl Theories & Fearless Rick's Picks
Super Bowl LVIII (58) | Sunday, February 11, 6:30 pm ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

San Francisco 49ers (-2, 47 1/2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

First off, let’s review the obvious. Kansas City defeated the best teams the AFC had to offer (Dolphins, Bills, Ravens), two of them on the road, and covered the spread (they were underdogs against the Bills and Ravens) in all three games. From a bettor’s perspective, it doesn’t get any better than that.

San Francisco struggled to beat Green Bay, should have lost to Detroit (having a coach, Dan Campbell, who likes to “go for it” on fourth downs isn’t always an asset) and did not cover either spread, despite playing at home.

As for the complete second half meltdown by the Lions, kudos to the 49ers for hanging in there and the defense for allowing a lone, late, meaningless Lions’ TD to cover the spread, making 49er haters and Lions’ lovers happy.

The second half was a disaster entirely of coach Dan Campbell’s making. After holding the 49ers to a field goal on the opening drive of the third quarter, the Lions moved downfield with purpose, but eventually stalled at the SF 28-year line, where it was 4th and two. Rather than kicking the obvious 45-yard field goal and improving on the 24-10 lead, Campbell opts to go for it and Josh Reynolds drops the pass, turning the ball over on downs.

Momentum shifts immediately to the 49ers, who march 72 yards and score to make it 24-17. All of a sudden, we have a game, and on the next play from scrimmage, Jahmyr Gibbs coughs it up. Four plays later, the 49ers tie the game at 24-all.

After Detroit goes three-and-out and is forced to punt, the 49ers drive 65 yards on 11 plays and kick a field goal, putting them up 27-24, while taking seven minutes off the clock.

On the next series, Detroit again advances the ball to the 49ers 30, where it is 4th and three. Campbell goes for it again and again, the Lions fail. Could have once again kicked a field goal and tied the game, but NO, NO, we have to go for it on 4th down. Bonehead.

49ers go 70 years on seven plays and are up 10, 34-24. Lions rally for a late score and that’s all she wrote, 34-31, 49ers.

Campbell blew the game, no doubt. Detroit should be playing in the Super Bowl, not the overrated 49ers, who, by the way, are favored by two points against the Chiefs.

San Francisco’s defense was mauled by Detroit, and by the Packers the week before. While the Chiefs don’t have the greatest running game, they still can move the ball and the 49ers won’t be able to keep up with the KC receivers.

Then there are the various theories:

Taylor Swift Theory

Everybody knows that Taylor Swift and KC tight end Travis Kelce are an item, and that Taylor is the most popular performing artist in the world, so, since every Super Bowl in recent memory has to have a story line, this one will be about the perfect couple and their Kansas City love affair. Never mind that Kelce is a media whore who does ads for taking the death shot covid vaccine or the ineffective flu shot, the Chiefs have to win to complete the fairy tale.

All NFL Games are Fixed Theory

Offer just about anybody a couple million and they’re likely to do as you please. Considering there’s somewhere between $12 and $16 billion expected to be bet on the Super Bowl this year, having a controlling interest in some of that dough would give organized crime good reason to spend a little.

The average NFL referee makes about $200,000 and may get an additional $50,000 for working the Super Bowl. Even some players making over $2-3 million per season would appreciate an additional tax free income boost. Do the math.

Dynasty Theory

The NFL has a history of dynasties. Think Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots. This is the fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons for the Chiefs. Head Coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes have been there for all of them. The Chiefs have won two of their last three appearances.

A win here would give them three championships in the last five years, the stuff of dynasties, and Mahomes is only 28. More to come from Kansas City.

BTW: Kansas City’s first Super Bowl win in the Reid-Mahomes era was 31-20 over the 49ers in pre-pandemic Super Bowl LIV (Feb. 2, 2020).

Mahomes is an Alien Theory

This one purports that Patrick Mahomes is from another planet and possesses unworldly qualities. Could be something to that.

Even if Patrick Mahomes is merely mortal, he’s still the best quarterback in the game and already (barring career-ending injury) a certain Hall of Famer. Also, he and Kelce have so much on-field chemistry, means the 49er linebackers and secondary are in for a world of hurt.

Here’s a final theory: Kansas City is a better team, has a better defense, the best QB in the world, and will win the game by a touchdown.

Fearless Rick’s Prediction: Kansas City 34 49ers 27

Coin Flip: Kansas City


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