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2024-25 College Basketball Preview
November 4, 2024 - Fearless Rick
Editor's Note: Running a little behind on this "preview". Check back by the weekend, when there will be more rim-rocking commentary.
Need some relief from pre-election anxiety?
Well, the NCAA Men's Basketball season started today, and there are more than 200 games being played across the country. There's sure to be a game or two of interest to just about anybody, even if many of these contests are little more than tune-ups or scrimmages for the top teams.
One that isn't going to be boring is the late-night clash with the 8th-ranked Baylor Bears visiting the #6 Gonzaga Bulldogs at the Spokane Arena, in Spokane, Washington. While there's still four months before it's tourney time, both teams are near locks for post-season play. Last season, in the Final AP Poll, the Bulldogs were ranked 15, the Bears, 16, so there may be some bragging right on the line.
The game is set to tip off at 11:30 pm ET, and will be aired on ESPN2.
Other games of interest on Monday include (all times Eastern):
Maine at 7 Duke, 7:00 pm
Did somebody mention an election? Talk to me after the games.
Others receiving votes: Illinois 92, St. John's 91, Xavier 73, Texas Tech 58, Wake Forest 37, Kansas State 30, Ohio State 29, Michigan State 29, Michigan 19, BYU 14, Oregon 12, Miami 11, McNeese 11, Providence 9, Clemson 9, Saint Louis 9, Boise State 9, VCU 6, Mississippi State 6, Saint Mary's 5, Wisconsin 5, Louisville 4, UAB 4, Grand Canyon 3, Little Rock 3, Princeton 2, San Diego State 2, Arizona State 2, High Point 1, Maryland 1
Coaching Moves
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Breeders' Cup Tips and Suggestions
Saturday, November 2
Twelve races are on the Del Mar card for Saturday, nine of them Breeders' Cup events (4-12). Following are some ideas for each of the nine races. Be sure to scroll down and read the general tips (between todays races and Friday's).
(Had a pretty good day Friday; cashed on 4 of 5 races)
Race 4: 7 Furlongs. BCFMSprt-G1 PNC Bank Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
A field of ten, minus #5, scratched, leaves nine, any of which can win. Handicapper's dream, all about who has the most fit horse and gets the best trip. #1, Frost At Dawn, and #8, Soul of an Angel, may be overmatched. Front-runners are #2 One Magic Philly (Phil D'Amato trainer), #3 Pleasant (Baffert), and #6 Society. Stalkers, #4 Vahva, #9 Ways and Means and #10 Scylla, may get dream trips just behind the front-runners.
Deep closers, #1 Frost at Dawn, #7 Zeitos, and #8 Soul of an Angel, may pick up a minor share if the front end collapses, which isn't likely.
#6, Society may be the one to catch, but she may fade if pressed and she's never raced at Del Mar, though #2 and #3 have and may be improving at the right time. Suggestion: Box 2, 3, 4, 9, and 10 in the exacta and hope for the best.
No scratches, so probably a field of 12 to go, with #9, Cogburn looking like a heavy favorite as the speed of the speed. Three straight wins, two Grade 2s and a Grade 1, with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. The shorter distance may make him unbeatable.
Others to consider:
Charlie Appleby brings #6 Star of Mystery over from England and Dubai, solid closer, never out of the money at the distance.
#7, Howard Wolowitz, has the highest speed rating in the field (104) freaked his last time out and Gets Flavian Prat to ride. Morning line odds: 30/1
#10 Isivunguvungu, invader from South Africa, trained by Graham Motion has 10 tries at the distance, 5 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds. Champion stature.
British invaders, #11 Big Evs, and #12 Bradsell will be pressing #9 on the outside. Quite a dangerous duo.
Suggestion: Either wheel #9 up and down with other contenders and long shots in exacta and trifectas. A place bet on #9 may be a good ploy, $3.50-4.50 for a $2 bet.
#3 and #8 are scratched, leaving a field of eight.
#2 Thorpedo Anna will be a very short price, close to even money, and deservedly so. In nine starts, 7 wins and 2 seconds, all at distances from 7 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Very hard to beat.
#7 Raging Sea, appears the main threat.
Suggestion: Either pass on the race or use Thorpedo Anna 1st and 2nd in exacta or trifecta wheels. If long shots come in ahead or behind her, you'll get a fair price, but, if she wins - which is likely - you may not get your money back.
13 entries, may get a scratch or two.
#11, Rebel's Romance, trained by Charlie Appleby, is 14-of-21 lifetime, winner of over $9 million, $6 million this year alone. Do not leave him off any tickets.
#6 Far Bridge (Joel Rosario / Christophe Clement) is a reasonable choice. Distance specialist is 2-for-2 at the 1 1/2 mile route, 13-6-3-2 on turf, made $1.7 million. Can come from behind or race on the lead. Very consistent.
#2, Emily Upjohn, and #4, Luxembourg, hail from across the pond (UK, Ireland) and have proven ability. As usual, the British imports will be hard to beat.
The Classic was moved up to this time slot for TV. NBC is airing from 3:30 to 6:00, so this will be the climax for them. Something about college football and ratings. Seriously, Wisconsin at Iowa, 7:30 pm? They both suck. Oh, well.
The main contenders are the top three-year-olds in America, #9 Fierceness, #11 Sierra Leone, the Japanese horse, #1 Forever Young, who might have won the Kentucky Derby had he not been impeded by Sierra Leone, and the turf specialist, #3 City of Troy.
City of Troy has never raced on dirt, but the Irish-bred three-year-old has won six of seven turf tries, four in Grade 1 events, most by fairly easy margins, so he figures to be a live threat.
Fierceness has the top end speed and stamina to chase down any early leader (possibly #2, #12 or #14) and carry the distance, though #14, Next, could be a runaway winner. He's 13-for-23, has won seven straight races at distance all on the front end and his speed figures rival or are better than the other contenders.
Suggestion: Fade Sierra Leone, used 1, 3, 9, and 14 in an exacta box. Flat bets on #1, Forever Young, especially to show, may pay nicely.
Scratch #6, 12 runners.
#2 Full Count Felicia is a front runner who posted a 110 Beyer last out and has Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, though that race and others were with Lasix, disallowed today. Other than her, though, there doesn't appear to be much early speed in the race and her post position couldn't be better. Kevin Attard sends her and #10 Moira, a solid closer.
William Mott has his top rider, Junior Alvarado, on #4, War Like Goddess, who may be the favorite and capable of winning.
This appears to be pretty wide open, with the foreign horses favored on the turf. Charlie Appleby's #3 Cinderella's Dream, and #12 Soprano with Billy Loughnane on board, can be used.
#5 Didia and #9 Anisette may show up at long odds.
11 runners, no scratches.
Brad Cox's #3 Federal Judge has blazing speed, has won four of six and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. Might be the favorite, but at decent odds of 2-1 or 3-1.
A serious pace duel may develop between #3 and #1 Raging Torrent, #8, Straight No Chaser, along with #10 Mullikin and #11 Skelly. They can't all have the lead.
That may set things up for stalkers and closers. #4 Nakatomi, #6 Bentornato, and #9 Remake (Japan) could upset.
Probably the toughest race to handicap on the card. Maybe some show bets on long shots.
Scratch #1 and #4, which leaves 10 runners.
#6, Notable Speech (Buick/Appleby), #7 Porta Fortuna, #9 Johannes, and #12 Carl Spackler appear to be a notch above the rest. Throw in #8, More than Looks, a stout closer in exotics.
These top five are pretty evenly matched and depends largely on the trip. Notable Speech should get the best of it, but Carl Spackler has been lights out with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. The wide post may hurt his chances, but don't count him out.
Scratch #13
#1 Saudi Crown (Florent Giroux, Brad Cox) has plenty of speed, a great post, has won five of 10 starts and made $3 million.
#14 Skippylongstocking has the widest post, but enough speed to put himself near the rail into the first turn. Irad Ortiz Jr., maybe the most skilled horseman in the world, rides.
#12 Mufasa is a winner of 10 of 12 races, Mostly in Chile and the mile distance is right in his wheelhouse. May be the speed of the speed, but is not likely to get to the finish line in the money.
#10 Muth also has some quickness. Bob Baffert trains, Juan Hernandez rides.
#9 Domestic Product appears to be at the top of his game, has tactical speed and can handle any pace scenario. Could be the one to beat.
Suggestion: #1 and #14 are the class of the race, though #9 appears to be in the best form. A 1, 9, 10, 14 exacta, trifecta or superfecta box seems reasonable.
Flat bets on any of the above should pay reasonably well.
That's it until Spring and the lead up to the Triple Crown races. Enjoy!
The annual running of the Breeders' Cup championship races will take place at Del Mar Race Course, in Southern California, featuring five Grade One events for two-year-olds (Juveniles) on Friday, November 1, and nine Grade One events for older horses (3yo and up) on Saturday, November 2.
First race post time at Del Mar is 11:35 Pacific, 2:35 Eastern, with Breeders' Cup events being races 6 through 10, starting at 2:45 Pacific, 5:45 Eastern.
First, a few things to keep in mind concerning horses, jockeys, and trainers in the Breeders' Cup. As far as the horses are concerned, most are of championship caliber in their own right, so the competition is among the best horses in the world, and quite fierce. The same goes for the jockeys and trainers. They are the very best in the world, bar none. Some of the names to keep close eyes upon are jockeys Irad Ortiz and his younger brother, Jose; Luis Saez, John Velazquez, Lanfranco Dettori, and Flavian Prat.
Among the less-known and newcomers, Dylan Davis has emerged as one of the top jockeys on the East coast, along with Manuel Franco, Joel Rosario and Jose Lezcano. Be especially aware of Junior Alvarado, the main rider for trainer William Mott. They are a dangerous combo. Tyler Gaffalione is also a leading rider coast-to-coast.
West coast jockeys of note are Hector Berrios, Juan Hernanez and Umberto Rispoli.
British jockeys William Buick, James Doyle, Billy Loughnane, and Ryan Moore are especially skilled in turf riding and the foreign horses generally fare well on the lawn.
Trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are the most successful at Breeders' Cup event, having won more than their fair share over the years. On the international front, Charlie Appleby is the king of turf trainers, with Aiden O'Brien a close second.
Other trainers with solid resumes include Phil D'Amato, Chad Brown, Mark Casse, Richard Mandella, and Philip Bauer.
In terms of wagering, hitting exotics may be a challenge with so many great horses and jockeys in the mix in each race. There are usually a number of heavy favorites, especially in the races for three-year-olds and up, and they may be good choice to wheel in exactas and trifectas. There's also no shortage of surprising long-shots, so betting across the board or even just show bets can prove to be a winning strategy.
There are pick threes, pick fours and pick sixes in which handicappers need to spread extensively. It can get expensive, but payoffs are large.
Also, be aware that drugs, especially Lasix are forbidden in stakes races in America, so any horse that may look solid when on the drug, may perform at a lower level without it.
Presented below are some tips and suggestions for each race.
Friday, November 1
Race 6: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) BCJvTfSp-G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2:45 PT
A square price might be offered on #2, Aesterius, 9/2 morning line. With James Doyle aboard, he's won four times with one second all at the five furlong distance. Play him across the board and possibly in exotics with 3, 4, and 7. Bombs away on speedball Governor Sam, #10, with Paco Lopez riding. He's won four straight. #1, Out On Bail, second to Governor Sam last two a scratch.
Dirt race, so imports may be passed over for North American breeds. Bob Baffert's #7, Non Compliant, will get lots of attention, will probably be an underlay from his morning line odds of 9/2. MAKE NOTE: #7 HAS BEEN SCRATCHED.
Brad Cox's Immersive, #3, has the look of a future Kentucky Oaks contender, 3-for-3 with the last two Grade 1s. Short odds, maybe as low as even money expected.
#10, Scottish Lass, gets the worst of it from Post 10, but has enough tactical speed to possibly get fair position on the first of two turns. Morning line favorite at 5/2, the poor post suggests not betting this one with odds under 3/1. Winner of the Grade 1 Frizette has also turned in some rather ordinary works of late.
Looking for long shots? Bet the Japanese horses, #6 Otomena Shacho and #9 American Bikini, both to show.
Back on the turf, #1 Lake Victoria may be the shortest price of the day. 4-for-4, though at 7 furlongs three times and 6 furlongs for the last win. The added distance should not be a problem, but what may be is the presence of #2 Nitrogen, and #7 Thought Process, with Hector Berrios aboard. All three may want the lead, but Thought Process has proven ability to rate. Three straight wins, all at the mile distance. Whether she can run down Lake Victoria late is the question.
Lots of pretenders in here, but #10 Abientot, ridden by Dylan Davis, has improved in each turf start and should appreciate the longer distance. Trainer Phil D'Amato's filly cannot be overlooked.
This race sets up for a possible part-wheel exacta, trifecta or superfecta, using the 1, 5, 6, 7, and 10, which appear to be the best in the field. #6, Citizen Bull, and #7, Gaming, are both Baffert entries and they are at morning line odds of 10/1 and 8/1. The race may well belong to #1 East Avenue, winner of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland just a month ago. Tyler Gaffalione rides. #10, Chancer McPatrick will also sport short odds with Flavian Prat in the saddle. Tough post in a two turn race.
#5, Jonathan's Way, a Phillip Bauer trainee, has Joel Rosario in the irons, and could upset the event. Use all five. Price may not be huge, but the point is to not tear up too many tickets.
Huge field of 16 announced, 12 will run with 8, 14, 15, 16 scratched.
#11, New Century will likely be the favorite, but, again, the post is not friendly. He's a late runner, so not getting strung out three wide will be a priority heading into the first turn.
Phil D'Amato may have another live one in Iron Man Cal, 30/1 morning line, but a closing second in the Zuma Beach Grade 3 on October 6. Flavian Prat rode #5, Zulu Kingdom, to victory this summer at Saratoga and in September at Aqueduct and gets on board again for Chad Brown. Has a shot.
Tyler Gaffalione on #3, Noble Confessor, took to the turf well, 2nd a neck in the Grade 2 Pilgrim behind Zulu Kingdon. Could be any kind.
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