Fearless Rick & Coin Flip Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 3 Results: Rick 9-6-1; Flip: 9-6-1
Cumulative: Rick: 23-24-1; Flip: 28-19-1

Thursday, October 1

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 38.5) @ Cleveland Browns (8:15 pm, Amazon Prime Video) - Apparently, Aaron Rodgers can still spin it. Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three TDs in Pittsburgh’s, 30-27, home win over the Bengals, leaving all four AFC North teams with identical 2-1 records after three weeks.

Cleveland stunned Carolina, 21-18, in their home opener. The Browns likely have a better defense than the Bengals and should pester Rodgers into a couple of costly mistakes. These two split their season series last year with the Browns winning at home, 13-6.

Coin Flip: Cleveland

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Browns 23 Steelers 16

Sunday, October 4

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 47) @ Washington Commanders (9:30 am, NFL Network, London) - The Colts found their winning ways last week at home, holding off Houston, 19-17, to go to 1-2 on the season, ending a nine-game losing streak extending back to week 12 of last season. The Commanders shocked everybody by knocking off Seattle, 33-31, in DC.

Being played across the pond makes for an interesting matchup, though the Colts seem to be better prepared - and with their regular starting QB, Daniel Jones, as opposed to Marcus Mariota filling in for the injured Jayden Daniels - for the trip abroad.

Coin Flip: Indianapolis

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Colts 30 Commanders 21

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42.5) (1:00 pm, Fox) - While the Jets have looked better than they did in 2025, they’re still not quite up to many of the other NFL teams. Their lone win this season came at Tennessee, which is neither surprising nor inspiring.

The Bears got an exceptional performance from fill-in QB, Case Keenum, in their 27-7 rout of the Eagles Monday night. The quick turn-around at home shouldn’t bother the Bears. They appear to be one of the top three teams in the league at this juncture, even without Caleb Williams.

Coin Flip: New York Jets

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bears 31 Jets 10

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5) @ New York Giants (1:00 pm, CBS) - The Giants traded with Minnesota to add QB J.J. McCarthy as a backup to Jameis Winston, who is starting in place of injured Jaxson Dart, likely out for the season. He’s not going to help and the Vikings were happy to let him go.

The Cardinals are off to a 1-2 start to the 2026 campaign. Despite their record, the losses have been to Seattle and San Francisco, with the win over the Chargers in Week 1. They are likely to find it tough going against the stout Giants’ defense, which needs to carry the day until the offense finds some answers.

Coin Flip: New York Giants

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Giants 23 Cardinals 17

Los Angeles Rams (-3, 44) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 pm, Fox) - Neither of these teams have lived up to expectations thus far. The Rams are 1-2 and the Eagles, 2-1, after a miserable performance against the Bears on Monday night.

While this may eventually serve as a precursor to some playoff matchup, the main interest is in seeing which team screws up less, and, at this point, it seems the Eagles have a lock on making poor decisions. Miss this fiasco if at all possible.

Coin Flip: Los Angeles Rams

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Rams 24 Eagles 14

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7, 48.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Drake Maye has not come through for the Patriots as well as he did in 2025, while the Bills are one of five remaining teams without a loss.

The way the Bills are going, and especially being at home against a hated division rival, this could very well be a blowout performance. Buffalo is one of the top three teams in the league. Even their defense is improving.

Coin Flip: New England

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Bills 38 Patriots 17

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5, 43.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Face it, Tennessee fans, Cam Ward is a complete bust. The team has generated just 37 points in three games, Ward has thrown just two TD passes on one interception and the coaching staff is second rate.

If the Ravens don’t completely dominate Derrick Henry’s former team, the universe is cockeyed. No way anybody in their right mind would take the Titans on the road, even with 14 points.

Coin Flip: Tennessee

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Ravens 30 Titans 6

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 51.5) (1:00 pm, CBS) - Her’s a solid matchup between teams that are going to be vying for playoff spots and probably division crowns throughout the season, barring injuries.

While Joe Burrow has gotten most of the positive press in recent years, he’s been outplayed by Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who also has managed to stay healthy for his 5+ seasons with the Jags. Jacksonville is coming off a big, 35-6, win over New England, and are currently cooking red hot. Cincy lost at Pittsburgh last week, 30-27. The Bengals’ defense probably won’t hold up here.

Coin Flip: Cincinnati

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Jaguars 31 Bengals 17

Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans (-2.5, 47.5) (1:00 pm, Fox) - Dallas somewhat snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week in Rio, losing on a last-second, 56-yard field goal by the Ravens after tying the game just seven seconds earlier. No fault but their own, Dallas actually played a solid game against a talented team.

Houston, on the other hand, still has problems too numerous to count. They can’t sustain drives and the defense is sloppy and prone to missed coverages, which might turn deadly against Dallas.

Coin Flip: Houston

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Cowboys 34 Texans 18

Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 39) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 pm, Fox) - Here are another two teams still searching for the winning formula. The Packers are 1-2; Tampa Bay has started the season 0-3 and one has to wonder how much not signing QB Baker Mayfield prior to the season has affected the overall tone in the locker room and play on the field.

At this juncture, Green Bay appears to have fewer issues than the Bucs, though after their 35-14 home loss to Atlanta, one wonders if they can bounce back to win on the road. Tampa Bay is desperate for a win and this one might be it.

Coin Flip: Tampa Bay

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Buccaneers 23 Packers 14

Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings (-12, 38.5) (4:05 pm, Fox) - Believe it or not, the Vikings are leading the NFC North with a 3-0 record. The Vikings may have the best defense in the NFL and they continue to prove it every week. Getting a very weak Miami team at home makes them 4-0.

Miami might be the worst team in the league, though Tennessee might press them on that account.

Coin Flip: Miami

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Vikings 20 Dolphins 10

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 47.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (4:25 pm, CBS) - This turns out to be a battle for first place in the AFC West, both squads sporting 3-0 records. While the Chiefs look like their usual awesome selves, the Raiders made wholesale changes in the offseason to turn things around in a hurry.

Wins over Miami, the Chargers and the Saints may not sound like much, but, for the Raiders, they are the essence of finding ways to win. The Chiefs may not find the atmosphere in Las Vegas to be friendly and heads-up play by the Raiders may produce the upset of the week.

Coin Flip: Kansas City

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Raiders 26 Chiefs 24

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers (-3, 46.5) (4:25 pm, CBS) - The 49ers are off to a 3-0 start after dispatching Arizona last week, 36-30, a somewhat sloppy performance by a banged-up San Fran defense.

After their opening week loss to the Chiefs, Denver has won two straight and looked very positive doing so. Last week’s 30-26 win over the Rams was no fluke. Denver has athletes and attitude.

Coin Flip: Denver

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Broncos 28 49ers 14

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (-7, 42) (4:25 pm, CBS) - Seattle’s defense got a little surprised in last week’s 33-31 loss at Washington, but they’re likely to put things together against the Chargers, a team that hasn’t shown much at all this season, and, if they go to 0-4, they might as well forget about the playoffs and maybe another Harbaugh gets fired.

Seattle, being the reigning champion of the league, gets every team’s best shot. Unfortunately for the Chargers, that shot may be a blank.

Coin Flip: Seattle

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Seahawks 41 Chargers 14

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 50.5) @ Carolina Panthers (8:20 pm, NBC) - Detroit still has one of the more explosive offenses in the league, which usually carries the Lions to victory, but the defense is very lacking on most aspects.

RB Chuba Hubbard of the Panthers may have a breakout game against a soft Detroit run defense.

Coin Flip: Carolina

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Panthers 34 Lions 24

Monday, October 5

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3, 48.5) (8:15 pm, ABC, ESPN) - solid divisional matchup with two teams that are improving, though both have records of just 1-2, making this a very pivotal contest.

Tyler Shough has been on target for the Saints and actually may emerge as one of the league’s top QBs this season. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. led the Falcons to their first win of the season with a 35-14 win over the Packers last week. Give Atlanta a slight edge in an emotionally-charged game.

Coin Flip: New Orleans

Fearless Rick’s Pick: Falcons 26 Saints 19